[ekrisza]

One reason could be that it is hard to evaluate productivity growth, in a general sense, after such a short time.

If we look at the Laws of Software Evolution, we should not really expect any improvement on the long run. This, however, does not mean that a given project might not experience benefits.

I have recently published a study: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s44427-025-00019-y. There, I investigated the long-term evolution of 66K projects. For about 16.1% of the projects, the growth curves seemed stable over decades. In line with the Laws of Software Evolution, they seemed to be largely resistant to external changes. At the same time, most of the projects, the smaller ones, did not seem to be that stable. There external factors might have had large impacts. However, on the long term, projects in this group were also more likely to decelerate.

It might take several years, till we can tell if this technology did really bring a productivity growth that was sustainable on the long run, was only improving work in some particular domains, or just created some short term performance jump that came with some much higher costs only realized afterwards.