[data-ottawa]

Iran has two clear win conditions in this war: cause enough pain that the US withdraws (unlikely given the current admin), or wait until US midterms and hope the Dems secure a victory and use the war powers resolution to end the war.

The more FUD they can generate around transport in the strait of Hermuz the better for them.

Maybe they have this capability and maybe they don’t, but they are clearly able to hit these tankers with something. Ukraine has been using these drones so it’s entirely possible Iran has this tech too.

[Eddy_Viscosity2]

This admin does TACO all the time. A likely scenario is Iran causes economic problems, Trump chickens out and withdraws while simultaneously declaring absolute victory. Any lingering problems he blames on Rubio and hegseth.

[baq]

TACO isn't enough, Iran must also withdraw, this isn't a given if they feel they have nothing to lose

[pseudohadamard]

TACO is fine. Iran have shown the world what will happen if Israel/US try that stunt again. So the sensible approach for them would be to declare themselves the peacemakers and pull back, then invest heavily in better drones, seaborne drones, and semi-autonomous minelaying systems. They know what'll happen next time, and how to respond appropriately.

[morkalork]

Unfortunately, the new leader's father, wife and children are all dead.

[orwin]

Not all his children, only his daughters. Also his nomination seriously pushes Iran from a theocracy to an elective monarchy imho. Wich, to be clear, is a common slide for theocracies. The Papal ban on children for priests is perhaps the only instance where a theocracy managed to prevent this slide.

[dragonwriter]

> The Papal ban on children for priests is perhaps the only instance where a theocracy managed to prevent this slide.

Pretty impressive effect, given that there is no such ban. There are a number of other rules which can combine to make it look approximately like there is, but there isn't.

[orwin]

Sorry, ban on priest marriage. Or rather, a celibacy obligation for bishop and priests. Which makes it a ban on children for Christians. I think it's in the 12th century that the rule was instaured, and was, let say, made effective by the council on Trent during the reformation.

[merpkz]

> Ukraine has been using these drones so it’s entirely possible Iran has this tech too.

Ukraine has been defending against these drones for past 4 years!

EDIT: nevermind, we are talking about sea babies, not shaheds - different kind of drones.