[gradschool]

I don't know about y'all, but this paradox was resolved to my complete satisfaction in a blog post some years ago, I believe by Scott Aaronson, though I can't find the link. If the predictor has such a good success rate, then it must be simulating people's brains, but since it's not always right, the simulation isn't perfect. The best strategy for playing this game therefore is to look for indications as to whether I'm the real me or the simulation when the question is posed to me, and choose accordingly. Am I floating in a sensory deprivation tank being asked my choice by a disembodied voice with no recollection of how I got there and no memory of my childhood? In that case maybe I'm the simulation, so my answer is that I'll choose just one box. Is it an ordinary day of my life and a plausible setting with all of my faculties and recollections intact? Then I'll assume simulated me had my back and take both boxes.