[b112]

Teslas have the wrong sense-gear, coupled with immense randomness. Pesky pedestrians. Waymo seems to be doing quite well in comparison. Regardless, a cat isn't a dog, and real-world navigation isn't posting on Facebook.

It would be better to make a direct point, such as "It will never be flawless". That's not really a problem here, it only need be flawless most of the time.

See my other post.

[chipotle_coyote]

My point was more just that assigning a year to "no way to ever tell" seems as fraught as assigning a year to virtually any technological achievement we haven't seen yet. :) My strong suspicion is that by 2030, LLMs will be everywhere in a real sense, but the output quality won't be materially better than we have now -- the LLMs will simply be much more efficient and less resource-intensive (and, perhaps, the training corpuses in common use will be less full of legal minefields than the current batch). I could absolutely be wrong, but I don't think so.