[zer00eyz]

> There is no way the US/Israel didn't calculate that: ... the straight would be closed

It has always had this potential, as it has happened before: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Earnest_Will (1987). But based on this history I would assume that many in the admin did not find the threat as credible as it was then. We dont seem to have a good grasp on how things have gone in the black sea. We clearly did not anticipate the level of drone attacks that have been put out by Iran.

Nothing says "we did not have a plan" when easing Russian sanctions while you ask Ukraine for help with defenses.

> a new leader may represent similar idiologies of the past leader.

I could see making a bet that with the current water crisis there the this would tip them into an "Arab spring" moment. For any one aware of the history there, it was a poor one at best.

[itake]

If the US decided that stopping oil production in Iran was important (restricting global oil supply), what other options does the US have ease the impact on oil prices other than Russian sanction easement?

Yeah, it looks bad, but there just isn't really any other ways for the US to magically pump more oil out of the ground instantaneously to compensate for the war.

[jfengel]

That's exactly what we are doing, releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The fact that it's both a record release and still not sufficient suggests they underestimated how bad it would be. But the US did prepare for this eventuality. And now we're throwing away our ability to be prepared for any upcoming crisis.

[disgruntledphd2]

This is why starting a war with Iran right now was a bad idea.