[jiggawatts]

Normally what happens in these scenarios is that both sides declare victory and go home to lick their wounds.

The US and Israel can claim that they've caused the IRGC sufficient damage to set them back a decade or more.

Iran will declare that they've fought off a superpower with minimal real losses. They can also claim that -- despite intense foreign interference -- they got to choose and keep their preferred leader, alive. For now.

[robertjpayne]

Normally yes, but without regime change the Iranian leadership will have even more resolve than ever to continue weapons programs (nuclear or not) and prepare retaliation for the inevitable next round of bombing…

There is no winning here for anyone.

[jiggawatts]

I'm not claiming either side is actually winning, I'm merely predicting that they'll both claim to have won.

On the topic of the weapons program: The Israeli approach is to regularly "mow the lawn" to keep their regional opponents perpetually behind. Iran's nuclear weapons and ICBM programmes have almost certainly been damaged, perhaps enough to delay them for half a decade or more. Then it'll be time to mow the lawn again, or hope that by then a more moderate leadership can sign an agreement with a new US president that's a bit more trustworthy than the current one.