[clarky07]

It's also worth pointing out, that Apple has kept huge market share and profits in the iPod market. Sales have only gone down recently because everyone already has 1(or 2 or 3).

I'd like to think Apple has learned a few things since 90, and I also think these markets are a bit different. The compatibility problem isn't as bad this time, as most devs are making apps for both platforms, Apple still has a (slight) advantage here in terms of quality, and a fairly big advantage in terms of profitability. As long as they stay on par for profitability for devs they will keep a decent market share (20-40).

[ajross]

Sure, but those aren't independent variables. Their advantage in profitability derives almost entirely from their perceived advantage in quality (both because consumers will pay more for the devices in sticker price and because they can command better deals with carrier partners who know that they'll sell more boxes). Over the long term, no one is going to pay more for iOS devices that don't have a clear quality advantage.

Clearly 22 years ago isn't a perfect comparison, and I don't claim to know the future either. I'm just cautioning against putting your faith in "polish" and "margins". Historically those have been poor indicators of success in the consumer market.

[clarky07]

I think you misunderstood. I'm talking about the apps on the platforms. The devs are making slightly better apps, and they are making significantly more on iOS. As long as those continue to be true, it will compete with users as a phone and will compete with devs as a platform.