[sofixa]

> But already unable to defend itself from Russia, EU countries

I'm sorry, but this is just crazy talk. Russia cannot enforce its will on Ukraine, one of the poorest and most corrupt countries in Europe, with a (at time of invasion) relatively small and underequipped army. Yes it has grown through conscription, has been equipped by foreign and domestic supplies, has made some brilliant advances in tech and tactics... but when it was attacked, it was weak. And Russia lost its best troops and equipment failing to defat that.

Why would anyone think that the Russia that cannot defeat Ukraine would fare better against Poland? Let alone French warning strike nukes, or French, British, German troops and planes and what not.

[crystal_revenge]

It’s funny how you basically explain precisely why the war in Ukraine has gone on so long but refuse to recognize it.

As Russia’s economy has continually reshaped over the last 4 years there has been increasingly a domestic demand for war. You point out all the evidence yourself:

> Yes it has grown through conscription, has been equipped by foreign and domestic supplies, has made some brilliant advances in tech and tactics...

Russia (well its oligarchs and rulers) has increasingly benefited from perpetual war. Yes, soon it will need to switch positions to expansion to maintain its economy, but this situation in Iran presents a perfect opportunity if things play it Russia’s interests.

You also will find that if you paid any attention to European politics over the years this is a serious topic to all leaders there.

But I don’t mind if you’re not convinced, I had similar people on hacker news unconvinced Russia could sustain operations in Russia longer than a few months because they were doing so poorly… 4 years ago.

[sofixa]

> Russia (well its oligarchs and rulers) has increasingly benefited from perpetual war

No it has not. It has a ballooning debt crisis (at different levels - regions, military contractors, banks) which will pop at some point; the budget is so unbalanced they're projecting to reduce military spending (unlikely), increase taxes, and still have a pretty heavy deficit. They've been given the gift of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, so oil and gas revenues will grow, which will definitely buy them more time. But they are running against a clock, and they cannot win in Ukraine.

> You also will find that if you paid any attention to European politics over the years this is a serious topic to all leaders there.

Yes, because Russia only responds to strength, so you need to be strong militarily to be able to dissuade them from attacking you. That doesn't mean that realistically they have a chance of winning any conflict.