[mjr00]

Even if the stats are off by a factor of 10 it wouldn't matter. You could remove the numbers from the user axis entirely and it would paint the same story: there were massive user influxes after the 2024 US election and the inauguration in January, but user retention has been on a steep decline for the year+ since.

Again, this is not a reflection of anything bad about Bluesky as a user. IMO a smaller and more focused is a good thing for the actual community, hence why I read/post on HN and not Reddit or Twitter. However as an investor there's basically no way to interpret those statistics as anything but bad.

[verdverm]

Strong agreement, though I would say it looks to have reached a stable level for now. I've found several subcommunities that I can get good info from. I'm curious how the '26 election cycle will affect things, already seeing increase political discourse.

[ajsalminen]

I don't think it's quite stable. The external events that caused waves of new users to arrive from X are getting rare and bringing in fewer. When those aren't happening it's been a slow, gradual decline.

[verdverm]

Perhaps "leveled off" is a better phrase. There seems to be a base level of users, much like Mastodon.