Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by lateforwork 98 days ago
Poor CEO my abs. When ChatGPT came out Microsoft was singing victory songs, and predicted Google's imminent death. 3 years later Google has one of the best models and Microsoft is still borrowing OpenAI's model. Not only that, Google is running their models on their own hardware, not Nvidia's.
5 comments

One of the things that a CEO drives is vision and innovation.

Sundar misses the mark on these things. AI is a good example. Google invented the transformer architecture, but simply published it for its competitors to use. It took a code red in 2023 to finally push Google to develop products based on this.

Cloud. Years late to the game. All it would have taken is a letter similar to the famous Bezos memo to eventually get all of Google's world-class scaled infra pointing externally and generating revenue. Instead, Google Cloud started late, and couldn't reuse much of the internal infrastructure.

Stadia, another example. That architecture is probably the future. It's not clear how gamers in developing countries are going to afford thousands of dollars in hardware that sits idle 90% of the time.

> Google invented the transformer architecture, but simply published it for its competitors to use.

That's how innovation works in this industry. If companies didn't allow researchers to publish their work it would set us back decades. Researchers building on each other's work is how this industry was built.

> It took a code red in 2023 to finally push Google to develop products based on this.

So Google executed. Ability to execute is one of the things that makes a good CEO. Other CEOs have additional qualities such as vision, and getting others to believe in the vision. But not every CEO needs to be a Steve Jobs!

Plenty of innovations are coming out of Google, just look at Nano Banana Pro for example.

"Ability to execute"

Lmao I love this. "Hey, engineers. Make something like that but better here's money, but only a fraction of what I'll make off it!"

Yeah, being a CEO is reeeally hard. Even when they fail they still walk out with >10m.

Google is up 800% under Sundar. I guess the blanket explanation of irrational markets can fill a cognitive dissonance shaped hole of any size hole.
Google invented the basis of LLMs, but under Pai failed to come up with the idea of ChatGPT. Getting Gemini into a workable state required the return of Page and Brin. It seems to be working out for Google, but how they got here is a very big mark against Pichai's leadership.
my bet is:

- Google will be #1 because of sher data amount

- Anthropic will be #2 because of the best product (whatever this may mean in the future)

- Microsoft will be #3, because of enough cash to follow

What data does Google have that OpenAI can't get at?
1. Proprietary Data (Youtube, docs, gmail, cloud logs, waymo, website analytics, ads, search, the list is huge)

2. Commercial Datacenters (theyre ahead at least)

3. Chip production (Google is manufactoring proprietary chips)

4. Consumer OS (Chrome, Andriod)

5. Consumer Hardware (Pixel)

Basically google has access to data that OpenAI will never have access to, can lower costs below what OpenAI can, and is already a leader in all the places OpenAI will need massive capex to catch up.

You can't train LLMs on proprietary data, at least not if you want to make that LLM as accessible as Gemini. Otherwise random people can ask it your home address.

So it matters less than one would think. Also, ChatGPT can do 'internet search' as a tool already, so it already has access to say Google maps POI database of SMBs.

And ChatGPT also gets a lot of proprietary data of its own as well. People use it as a Google replacement.

>You can't train LLMs on proprietary data, at least not if you want to make that LLM as accessible as Gemini. Otherwise random people can ask it your home address.

If this is your only criteria I think you have a misunderstanding of what proprietary data is and ways companies can mitigate the situation in the inference stage.

Enterprise Distribution thanks to GCP. Consumer distribution thanks to Android. SMB distribution thanks to GSuite.

And non-western and non-Mandarin language support (the only other competitors are Indian, Emirati, and Saudi sovereign models).

the whole of youtube. (including the private stuff.) edit: +gmail/google docs/google drive
e.g. years of tracking: Movement data etc., as simple & first example
Android too.
I'm pretty sure even chatgpt could have told the senior leaders at Google to invest heavily in AI. Not a difficult call to make.
What if the CEO isn't just telling the company how much to invest, but also has influence on how that money is used? Google's relative success, if it exists, I'd rather not judge, isn't from investing more than everybody else. Because the money just keeps pouring into these things, for all contenders.
> investing more than everybody else

If that's going to decide who wins, Zuckerberg will be the winner. He's been hiring researchers for $100 Million a piece. We'll see soon.

So Sundar is an AI engineer in his spare time too?