[mullingitover]

I get the feeling AI will be blamed for this, but I would not rule out the hypothesis that this was done intentionally in order to incite Iran to do something that bolsters support for the US regime’s actions. They desperately need domestic political support for this war and right now even the hardcore MAGA people are against it.

[fbelzile]

Reporting from the CBC mentioned that the school was located within an area surrounded by other military buildings. The building housing the school was used for military purposes in the past.

I think it's more likely that the US was going off of outdated intelligence.

[jihadjihad]

Yeah, Occam's Razor and all that. The current admin has proven itself to be poor players of games like checkers, let alone 5D chess.

[mylifeandtimes]

Sounds more like Bloody Stupid Jonssons Razor than Occams razor. The dumbest possible explanation is probably right.

[lukan]

Here is a bit more info:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/questions-over-minab...

"It can be said with a degree of confidence that, in 2013, the site was used exclusively as a military barracks with a strict security character, as there was no indication of an independent civilian use of any part of the complex.

But this changed radically in 2016. Satellite images dated September 6, 2016 capture the main turning point, when new internal walls were created and built, fully and tightly separating the school building area from the rest of the military block."

If they work with intelligence data older than 10 years, then this would still account to gross negligence, possibly counting as a war crime. But misstakes happen and they did used AI for target tracking.

But the other interpretation is more dark. Because it was not just some school, but a school where the children of the IRGC go, the elite of the system. And Trump said he does not want a regime change, but rather someone from the current system who just bows to US demands. So the threat of killing all the leadership, anyone could be next - but also the threat to kill also their children and familiy until they surrender.

To quote Hegseth:

"no stupid rules of engagement,” “no politically correct wars,” and “no nation-building quagmire.”

Threatening to kill also their families makes sense with this kind of language and logic. At some point you will find someone who values the life of his family higher than that of the nation and religion.

But I do hope my theory is wrong.

[vunderba]

When I saw that interview I immediately thought, people like Hegseth are why treaties like the Geneva Convention were created in the first place.

[surgical_fire]

People like Hegseth is why you sometimes need Nuremberg trials too.

[ZeroGravitas]

Trump has repeatedly, on record, enthusiastically endorsed killing the wives and children of enemies.

[lukan]

Do you have some sources?

[ZeroGravitas]

"The other thing with the terrorists is you have to take out their families, when you get these terrorists, you have to take out their families. They care about their lives, don’t kid yourself. When they say they don’t care about their lives, you have to take out their families,” Trump said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/02/politics/donald-trump-ter...

During the past week, in a series of interviews and events, Trump has articulated a loose, but expansive set of principles that, if enacted, would mark a fundamental shift in U.S. foreign policy from the limits put in place by Democratic President Barack Obama and the Republican-led Congress. In addition to arguing in favor of reinstating waterboarding, a technique that mimics the sensation of drowning, and "much more than that," Trump has advocated the killing of suspected terrorists' wives and children, which appears in violation of international law.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/to-fight-isis-torture-terror...

[ynac]

Agreed with others here...and updating intel for primary targets is customary. Which obviously didn't happen here. The targeting cycle and the F2T2 cycle, dynamic targeting loops (probably) should have brought the latest intel about the school to light.

As for whether it was AI - the US DOD Ethic's first tenent is Responsible - personnel remain responsible...

[jiggawatts]

Many similar incidents occurred in Ukraine, where Russia targeted apartment blocks that were built on the former site of some sort of military building that was demolished decades ago.

The ultimate hubris is launching a multi million dollar missile to kill civilians because you couldn’t be bothered to check Google street view (or whatever).

[lawn]

Russia actively targets hospitals, fire departments and schools for years and you attribute it to "outdated info".

Shame on you.

[jiggawatts]

It was quite obviously outdated info.

What people don’t seem to understand is the word “targeted”.

They see some obviously civilian target in ruins with screaming parents outside and they have an instant visceral emotional reaction: “What kind of monster would do something like this on purpose!?”

Practically nobody targets civilian building with expensive precision munitions! They’re expensive! There’s limited supply! Targets are chosen to maximise the military effect.

The problem is that the victims and journalists have “boots on the ground”. They’re right there and can clearly see the civilian nature of the target with their own eyes.

The person doing the targeting from som bunker thousands of miles away can see only blurry rectangles on an outdated map, has sparse intelligence reports, and targets coordinates. They’re not walking up to the missile like it’s some sort of intelligent war animal and whispering “kill civilians!” in its ear.

Similarly, they’re not on the ground standing outside the civilian target waving the missile in with light sticks like some airport tarmac staff.

I repeat: they’re thousands of miles away and have to target hundreds of buildings that all look the same-ish from space and aren’t magically labelled by God as “no longer valid under the Geneva conventions” or whatever.

I’m not saying that this makes war good or in any way ethical, but you can see how a mistake is made that doesn’t require cartoonish evil people to explain.

[krapp]

>Practically nobody targets civilian building with expensive precision munitions! They’re expensive! There’s limited supply! Targets are chosen to maximise the military effect.

We're not dealing with a rational or competent military chain of command. We're dealing with people who believe they're bringing about the Biblical Second Coming and that rules of engagement are "woke." These are literally cartoonishly evil people. They probably chose targets by asking Grok.

[jiggawatts]

I'm going to confidently state that nobody in the US military chain of command gave the order to "mix some schools into the target list" for any reason, religious or not.

That's absurd on its face, and if you honestly believe that, then your mental model of how the world (and people in general) function is fundamentally broken.

[lawn]

Terrorbombning is a thing, you should look it up.

[jiggawatts]

Oh sure, and the US did it against both Japan and Germany in WW2, but those were not even remotely the same scenario as precision strikes against the IRGC and Iranian leadership in general.

This was clearly a horrific mistake, especially obvious since the girls school used to be a military building.

[petre]

You forgot about churches and shopping malls.

[fakedang]

> I think it's more likely that the US was going off of outdated intelligence.

While Israel has enough intelligence to track where the Ayatollah is hidden away after the initial strikes on Iran. Does that sound believable to you? Either Israel and USA are pisspoor at coordinating intelligence, or Israel wilfully let the US attack the place and take the flak for it.

[dzdt]

I do think there is a strong possibility the people in charge in the US government believe an Iran state sponsored terrorism attack would be a political benefit to them. Such things boost support for the sitting President, and could also give political cover for additional authoritarian acts to help them retain power. Would they do the school attack on purpose? Maybe? But for sure they keep the war going until they generate the response they are looking for...

[rustyhancock]

I can't say I'm as conspiratorial as you.

I don't really know how these systems work, perhaps I shouldn't speak without research.

But it seems like a pretty basic error.

The base has looks like 5 buildings in an L shape. 4 buildings where hit in an L shape.

I can imagine the sites were picked from a satellite image and the wrong building was marked.

Or in flight from the camera the wrong buildings were marked.

It is our arrogance that we can blow up hundreds of buildings that makes us try and see meaning behind these mistakes.

Instead we should just be far more cautious about blowing buildings up because these mistakes are inevitable.

The perfect just war simply does not exist.

[JKCalhoun]

> The perfect just war simply does not exist.

Agree.

In the moment before war is initiated, before a strike is launched against a country, the leaders considering war must immediately assume they are likely to destroy a school full of children some point.

[Kapura]

It's a really warped mind that could think the best way to build domestic war support would be to blow up a girls' school, but frankly i haven't seen anything from the u.s. government that makes it sound implausible.

[urikaduri]

You really think the IRGC cared about schoolchildren? Give me a break, they used to have child soldiers.

[surgical_fire]

Sounds too convoluted, and implies that those in power in the countries attacking Iran have a grand plan that goes beyond killing people in Iran.

The explanation is simpler. They want death, so they are bombing shit indiscriminately

Hitting a school was not a mistake, it was the point.

[_alternator_]

I think a tragic mistake like this was foreseeable (in a vague sense), but I highly doubt that anyone intentionally bombed an elementary school full of children.

The NYT had some good reporting on this, and you can see how the mistake was made. The elementary school used to be part of the IRGC base until 2016. Then it was fenced off and made an elementary school. The “shooter” (in this case, the USA) had a duty to check that the target was currently a valid military target. This verification, if it was done at all, was clearly the problem.

I’m sure you have someone directly responsible for this mistake who is going to have a hard time living with themselves. But like I said, starting a war leads to inevitable tragedy, and I doubt the people who are indirectly responsible will ever recognize their culpability in this.

[ryandrake]

It really doesn't matter whether it was a mistake or how the mistake was made. If it were your kid's elementary school that got blown up, would you say "Oh, well, it wasn't intentional. The bad guys just had outdated intelligence. These things happen."

[kgwgk]

> It really doesn't matter whether it was a mistake

It does matter if people go around saying that “they want death, so they are bombing shit indiscriminately.”

[xrd]

I'm not sure how "they want war, so they are bombing negligently" is any different. Or morally better.

[Sabinus]

It's not, but that's not what the USA wants. They want Iran to stop destabilising the ME, and to eliminate the threat to the USA consisting of the Iranian nuke program, the ballistic missile program, and the religious zeal to use them.

What on earth makes you assert the USA just 'wants war'? If this war goes on for too long Trump is cooked. He'll lose the election and might even be unpopular enough to cop the persecution he deserves.

[surgical_fire]

> “they want death, so they are bombing shit indiscriminately.”

It's still the most probable explanation

[SauntSolaire]

Disagree, negligence seems more likely

[colonCapitalDee]

You're intentionally missing the point. Every time a bomb drops we're rolling the dice. Hits on civilian targets are inevitable, just like bugs are inevitable. The only solution is not to go to war at all. Don't blame the person who dropped the bomb, blame the people who ordered the bombs to be dropped.

[surgical_fire]

No, I firmly believe that decades of dehumanization of Iranians in particular and Muslims in general makes this sort of "tragic mistake" desirable.

I don't think whoever was responsible for this gives many fucks about the lives of Iranians.

If a foreign power bombed anything in the US and children died people would just consider them monsters, without further considerations. No one would be pondering about faulty intel.

I refuse to launder the vileness of the aggressors here.

[mrguyorama]

>but I highly doubt that anyone intentionally bombed an elementary school full of children

Hegseth said to your face "No stupid rules of engagement", "This is not a politically correct war"

These are the people who have been purposely and loudly defending Israel bombing innocent people. They genuinely believe, as they say to your face, that it is important and necessary to be brutal and extreme to win war.

Intentionally disregarding rules of engagement and protecting innocent life IS intentionally bombing that school. Civilian casualties are a reality of war and the best you can do is work your ass off to reduce them, so openly advocating for NOT doing that is intentionally killing people.

[_alternator_]

Trust me, I’m not trying to defend the leadership of the DoW. But I do believe that there is a difference between reckless indifference and actually intentionally bombing a girls school.

Both sound like war crimes to me, but the latter sounds implausible given the known facts. Let’s not redefine words like ‘intentional’ just because we are appalled. Giving something awful an “awfuller” name is not going to help.

[Sabinus]

This is real life not cartoon villany. The US administration is not a kind one, but their goals are not just 'death for people in Iran'.

[donkeybeer]

Why else would they start an unprovoked war while pretending to negotiate peace with Iran? They want death of Iranians.

[SauntSolaire]

For the same reason they deposed Maduro, control, obviously.

Your mistake is thinking they care about Iranians enough to want them dead. The reality is that they want Iran to bend the knee, at which point they'll go back to not thinking about them at all.

[killjoywashere]

Yeah, Hanlon's Razor applies.