[ppeetteerr]

Those are raw numbers. I would look instead at the job changes over total employment numbers. I don't have the numbers but I would wager we have many more people working in tech today (overall) than we did in 2008.

Also, that spike in 21/22 really did a number on people's expectations. The one constant in this industry is its cyclical nature.

[mrweasel]

Maybe I'm reading the graph wrong, but the decrease comes after years on continuous growth, so total employment numbers in tech should still be absolutely massive, compared to 18 years ago?

If it continues, then yes it could be bad, but so far it seems like a correction for over-hiring in 2021 - 2023. Seems a little weird to be focusing on a decline in 2024 - 2026, without addressing the large increase right in the years before.

[SpicyLemonZest]

There's a lot of dynamics where it's the short-term numbers that matter. If you're a developer who needs a new job after your spouse got transferred to LA or something, it does you no good that the absolute numbers are massive, nor that a different person looking for a job 3 years ago would have found it uncommonly easy.

[oblio]

Asked Gemini quickly for 2000 and 2025 numbers (US).

Tech employees: 5.5m vs 9.9.

Software developers: 0.68m vs 3.2m.

Different ball game.

[nabbed]

>Software developers: 0.68m vs 3.2m.

I had no idea I was in such an exclusive group back in 2000. Everyone I knew was a software engineer or in tech one way or another so I suppose I got a warped sense that I belonged to a larger group.

[ua709]

I'm not sure the nation wide raw statistics are that reliable in the field of software engineering without interpretation.

In the 90s tons of people who were de facto software engineers were listed as "Information Technology Workers". I suspect a lot of that still hasn't been shaken out of the system.

According to the BLS in the year 2000 there were 3.4 million information technology workers.

[shagie]

BLS had some classification changes over the years. I think it's interesting in the "this is how people thought about the role over the decades."

Today there are computer programmers (15-1251), and software developers (15-1252), and web developers (15-1254).

In 2018, there was a reclassification - https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/ETA/oflc/Presentation... where 15-1132, Software Developers, Applications and 15-1133, Software Developers, Systems Software where reclassified into the software developers (15-1252) group.

The other thing that confuses this is that a lot of positions were classified as Computer systems analysts because that's a position that a TN visa can be hired for (there is no software engineer in there... and it wasn't until relatively recently that one could be a "software engineer" in Canada without being an Engineer.

Back in 2010 ... https://www.bls.gov/cps/cenocc2010.htm

    Computer programmers    1010 15-1131
    Software developers, applications and systems software    1020 15-1132, 15-1133

Where the "Computer programmer" was the more junior classification and Software developers working on a word processor were classified differently than a software developer working on the operating system... and they were the more senior positions.

This division still shows up in the definitions.

https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/15-1252.00

    Software Developers
    Research, design, and develop computer and network software or specialized utility programs. Analyze user needs and develop software solutions, applying principles and techniques of computer science, engineering, and mathematical analysis. Update software or enhance existing software capabilities. May work with computer hardware engineers to integrate hardware and software systems, and develop specifications and performance requirements. May maintain databases within an application area, working individually or coordinating database development as part of a team.

https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/15-1251.00

    Computer Programmer
    Create, modify, and test the code and scripts that allow computer applications to run. Work from specifications drawn up by software and web developers or other individuals. May develop and write computer programs to store, locate, and retrieve specific documents, data, and information.

[game_the0ry]

> Software developers: 0.68m vs 3.2m.

Wow. Just wow.