Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by locusofself 110 days ago
Why the hell is Iran bombing other middle eastern states, like UAE?

I'm quite naive about these conflicts but it seems like whoever is in charge of the Iran military really has a death wish. I wouldn't be surprised if Iran is a parking lot by the end of the year at this rate.

10 comments

They are mostly bombing US bases in those states + some connected locations (hotels where US operatives were being stationed), and energy production infrastructure.

Basically the Iranian war plan seems pretty simple and clear: try to destroy US and Israeli military infrastructure in the region, and destroy energy infrastructure to raise the cost of oil. The first part is a completely legitimate military target, especially in a war of defense as Iran is waging. The second part is not legitimate, but the thinking behind it is very simple and clear.

Because disrupting energy exports is the easiest way to pressure their aggressors and most of the states are openly supporting the US. They get bombed to hell anyways because there was no real plan besides hoping for submission after the decapitation strike so they will make it hurt for everyone else. China is open for talks to keep Hormuz open. Russia is flying in whatever because they see a lifeline with higher energy prizes on the global market. The middle eastern states are diverting investments into the us. Look at a map there is no way the US can effectively put boots on the ground the whole country is a natural fortress. It would be a worse disaster than Afghanistan.
They said they would retaliate against US assets in the region if they were attacked, and then the US attacked, so now they kind of have to. In 1973 OAPEC announced that they were going to stop selling oil to countries that supported Israel in the Yom Kippur war, which rather quickly caused the US to rein in the israelis. Perhaps Iran is making a similar bet now.

Iran is a very large country, to make it into "a parking lot" would take many years, during which time we'd have a global recession and core US partners in the region would collapse.

Unlike what some would have you believe, the iranian leaders are generally quite thoughtful and educated. It's not an Idi Amin regime, or the occident would be supporting it.

Because the UAE happily keeps their air space open to the US, and their economy is driven (largely) by rich westerners.
More importantly, the US has actual bases there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Dhafra_Air_Base

And dozens of others, in Jordan, Iraq, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman...

https://www.americansecurityproject.org/national-security-st...

They are attempting to pull other actors into the conflict to increase the chaos of the war, and to increase the cost to the US of fighting it. They can't necessarily win an all out war, but they can make it so costly to the US that the already small political capital they have to fight it dries up.
Mostly bombing the airbases. And then went to bomb the oil infrastructure. Guess it is to show them that getting the US on your soil not only doesn’t give you protection but gives you bombs.

We will see how this plays out. Meanwhile gas is north of 1.6 CAD a litre in my city.

It’s the Poor Man’s MAD (mutually assured destruction). They want this conflict to be as painful as possible so that pressure is applied to the aggressors to stop. The US can’t defend all of the possible targets, it causes a lot of economic damage and increases uncertainty for everyone in the region.

This is one of the reasons that most administrations declined to start a war with Iran in the past, the risk that they would do something like this, that taking out the leaders wouldn’t end the threat but would just make it more wild and unpredictable.

Because they're supporting the US regime.
> Why the hell is Iran bombing other middle eastern states, like UAE?

The theory was probably that the Gulf states are only begrudgingly going along with Washington in this war, and that the moment they start seeing costs they’ll personally call Trump to stop it. What Iran miscalculated on are the Gulf’s (a) long-time frustrations with Tehran, (b) massive bets on economies that suffer from capitulation and (c) monarchies being a stubborn lot.

Alternate hypothesis: Iran’s hardliners think escalating the war lets them consolidate more of a smaller pie. (If you’re looking for the truly WTF moves, it’s targeting Cyprus and Azerbaijan, the latter who has Iran’s sizable Azeri minority right on its border.)

As said by others Iran is attacking US Military bases in these countries not the countries themselves.
No, it attacked Azerbaijan's airport and Saudi oil refineries, among many other civilian targets. They're just hitting whatever they can.
The Iranians are denying the Azerbaijan airport attack and the attack on Saudi oil facilities. Mossad false flag to provoke a war between Azerbaijan and Iran and get the gulf states to be motivated to attack Iran? It could be an Iranian drone hit the Saudi oil facility unintentionally. Its like the Girl's school that was hit in Iran. It looks like it was a target because the building was once used by the Iranian military. Old/stale database data the AI used to pick its targets?

To be clear, I am no fan of the Iran regime. Just trying to keep my head above the BS/propaganda that gets put out/repeated by the news agencies. There are no "good guys" here.

> Iranians are denying the Azerbaijan airport attack and the attack on Saudi oil facilities

Are they also denying the attacks on Dubai's hotels and Oman?

> There are no "good guys" here

There usually aren't in any war. But to the degree this war has a solid bad guy, it's Iran.

The solid bad guy(s) here are BB and tRump (for bending over for BB). No US president has ever been so stupid as to allow an Israeli leader con them into a war with Iran.

Also, you are forgetting that BB/Israel wants the Gulf States to get into the War against Iran. So it is highly plausible that some of those hits are the Israeli's. The Israeli's are masters at subterfuge.

They all have security guarantees from the US and host US military bases. Also, they are like the psycho child who wants to hurt anyone nearby. The government is an occupying force in Iran, which is not wanted by iranian people. Some arabs took over Iran 40 years ago and have been terrorizing anyone nearby and the people of Iran.