[pkaral]

There are so many implicit premises in that short comment, such as:

- Incredibly smart people are always right when it comes to extremely complex systems involving both deterministic behavior and human psychology - The people with the nuclear codes will be given their orders by (or themselves be) incredibly smart people - Wargames work (they have a horrible track record) - The best plans are based on a complete understanding of the starting conditions and the factors that influence the modelling (including the "unknown unknowns")

I could go on.

[sigwinch]

My experience is that wargaming has a decent track record. In hindsight, Nimitz looks much more prepared than MacArthur, even if their early careers suggest the opposite.

[twoodfin]

I’m not sure what you’re objecting to about my comment, except a bunch of “implicit premises” you read into it.