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by aftbit 99 days ago
Trying a little experiment. Here's the same comment as above, but I asked Claude to research my claims and add web citations. Any errors in content are my own - I originally wrote the comment with no AI assistance and only brief web searching to check my numbers.

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This is reminding us something that we should never have forgotten - modern war has an insatiable demand for munitions.

To take just one example out of dozens, the US fired somewhere from 100 to 150 THAAD interceptors - about ΒΌ of the stockpile - during the 12 days war in 2025.[1][2] We produce just under 100 per year.[3] There are plans to raise that number to 400 per year.[4]

The Ukrainians were expending somewhere around 10,000 drones per day in mid 2025.[5] Russian numbers are likely broadly similar.

Many historical conflicts have featured a substantial bottleneck on multiple munitions during ramp up. World War 1 had artillery shell crises across Britain, France, Russia, and Germany.[6][7] World War II had similar, especially for the Russians and Germans.[8] The US was short on ammo early in the Korean war.[9][10]

Modern mechanized combat demands an insane manufacturing and logistics chain. It can burn through stockpiles incredibly fast, especially of high capability expensive munitions. War production levels are utterly unsustainable during peace time.

This is why peer and near-peer conflict is as much an economic and productive game as it is a military one. Shock and awe takes a tremendous amount of resources to accomplish at all, let alone sustain.

*Sources:*

[1] https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/28/middleeast/us-thaad-missile-i...

[2] https://armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/2025/us-army-rais...

[3] https://breakingdefense.com/2026/01/lockheed-pentagon-ink-pl...

[4] https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5713637-lockheed-martin-q...

[5] https://dronexl.co/2025/10/22/ukraine-deploys-9000-drones-da...

[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_Crisis_of_1915

[7] https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/shells-cri...

[8] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13518046.2024.2...

[9] https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA416944.pdf

[10] https://wp.oldmagazinearticles.com/magazine-articles/the-col...