[baxtr]

You’re missing my point.

No one can know at this stage. It’s called fog of war.

Those who pretend offer easy explanations because people crave easy answers.

It’s not satisfying to say: "it’s very complex, we can’t know, here are the odds". But that’s the current state of affairs.

[hedora]

There's zero chance the US/Israel will win this war and stop 100% of their military actions in the next 8 weeks.

8 weeks is the absolute upper bound of the estimates from the officials of both countries. The officials are clearly lying.