[streetfighter64]

It might be aligned with the purpose of the market, but I have to ask, what exactly is the reason that a non-insider would ever make a bet? You know beforehand that insiders will sit on the information until just before it goes public (the larger the public sentiment against a certain position, the more you make by betting on it with hidden information). Likewise, there's a negative incentive for insiders to release information, and allowing the "forecasting of the future as accurately as possible" to actually happen.

Like, if I know a month ago that the US will invade Iran, and I make a big bet on "Yes", then that of course gives people information, which in turn negates my edge. So it's entirely self-defeating. It's actually way better to try to convince the general public that it won't happen through non-market means, or perhaps even buy a few "No" shares just to drum up public opinion. You'll get that money back anyway once the bet resolves.

Just imagine: the boxing champ is planning to take a dive in the third round. You think he'll make his bet a week in advance?