[alun]

Yeah I think where we fundamentally disagree is what prediction markets should be optimizing for.

If the goal is to produce the most accurate forecast possible, then informed traders (especially asymmetrically informed traders) are a feature of the system, not a bug. The market is a system for discovering the truth, and it generally rewards whoever brings that truth to the table first.

If the goal is to create a fair playing field where the crowd collectively arrives at an answer, then yeah someone with private information becomes problematic.

But I'd argue that's optimizing for fairness at the cost of accuracy, and accuracy is much more important.