[chfritz]

"the funding all these startups are getting should allow them to scale their methods 10x-100x.." .. "Therefore, we might soon see a ChatGPT moment in robotics" -- I don't think so and no, the second statement is NOT entailed by the first. Why would it? Because 100 is a big number? Do you have any idea how much more data LLM needed to be trained for a GPT3 level compared to the data available for robot training right now, and how low dimensional the space is in which LLMs operate compared to robots?

"My intuition is there's 40% chance we will see it this year" -- again, why? Don't you realize that people have been working in robotics for 65 years, and these people don't live under a rock either. They knew about GPT3 because 2023. So why is it NOW less then 10 month you think that this breakthrough will happen?

[willahmad]

Can you share more about data availability part?

What kind of data do you need which is missing now, isn't simulations enough? curious to learn more about bottlenecks in general

[p1esk]

I think it’s a combination of simulation, YouTube videos, and specially recorded training footage. The last one is expensive, but given the funding these startups receive, I’m pretty sure they can scale their RL methods at least 10x.