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by t312227
115 days ago
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hello, as always: imho (!) the usa will "bomb bomb bomb bomb iran" for a few weeks - as they wanted since 1979: more details to the song * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bomb_Iran 1. a few weeks in they will run out of ordnance to drop 2. they will declare victory and leave 3. iran wins by not being beaten i think 2 things are possible but very unlikely - eg. small single digit per cent probability: * successful regime change * a really long war - like in afghanistan or irak (~ 10 or up to 20 years) just my 0.02€ |
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Best we usually get is a failed US puppet state. The non-puppet faction is stronger but poorer but ends up winning in the end.
> a really long war - like in afghanistan or irak (~ 10 or up to 20 years)
Iran is twice the land size and about twice the military size. The US hasn't won wars half the size of this one. Not when 9/11 made people want blood. Not when they had a stronger casus belli. Not when they were deep in debt and economically separated from their top trade partner.
But on the other hand, the USA also doesn't declare wars; they're military action by a president. Since American presidents swap out every 4-8 years, nobody really owns the war. A future president decides that nothing of value was accomplished and ends the war to everyone's relief.