[andrenotgiant]

I've seen people compare the situation we are in now with AI to early days of Uber. Basically "You're excitement is artificially inflated by the fact that a VC just paid half your bill."

That definitely happened with Uber, but I would argue that one key difference between the Uber situation and the AI situation is COST. How much can COGs be reduced via optimization and technology.

In Uber scenario, the cost is labor, there's a hard lower limit where people will find something else to do for work.

In AI scenario, we've already seen the labs make major reductions in cost-per-token. I think it's fairly uncontroversial to say they have more possible cost reduction levers than Uber.

So I don't agree that at some point VC money will run dry and the unit economics for tokens will dramatically change.

[gmerc]

The part where this will be fun is where the VCs lobby the US government, via peace board donation or golden iphones, to ban Chinese Open Source AI because otherwise they won't ever make their money back.

https://this.os.isfine.org/blog/posts/us-ai-labs-love-the-ai...

My bet is on model signing to run on US (Nvidia hardware stack), akin to what Nvidia already has built for various game console customers.

[vardalab]

no doubt something like this is coming