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by darthoctopus 116 days ago
> Why is that not going to happen next time?

Because this shortage isn't natural, it's the result of OpenAI flexing monopsony power to deprive everyone else for its strategic gain. Unlike an organic shortage, there is no compelling reason for otherwise excess capacity to be built, since this artificial shortage can end as arbitrarily as it started.
1 comments
MadameMinty 116 days ago
The datacenters are still going to be built, and their usage won't suddenly fall just because the companies behind some of the products on them suddenly lose value. The demand is not tied to their profits, so I find it unlikely for the shortage to just end.
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inigyou 115 days ago
These data center projects are losing hundreds of billions of dollars which they don't have, and some evidence is starring to come out they're just money laundering schemes to get money from the government to contractors. I wouldn't bet on them all being built.
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m4rtink 115 days ago
There far too many railways, amusement parks, housing developments and other bubble ventures that were either never even completed after wasting a lot of money or went bust soon after opening.

No reason the same can't happen now - especially for something as expensive and faily easily re-sellable as a datacenter & the hardware insite. Just rip it all out and sell it for parts where they are actually needed.

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mr_toad 115 days ago
The data centers have already been financed, they’re not going to stop halfway through because they’ve run out of money. Whether or not they’ll make money on completion is a different story, but that’s 2-3 years away at least. Then you might see RAM prices drop, but not before.
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inigyou 115 days ago
Financed means they have a promise to get the money, it doesn't mean they have the money.
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m4rtink 115 days ago
I would not be so sure - for example Oracle is already struggling to finance its datacenter commitments:

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/shareholders-sue-...

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mr_toad 115 days ago
They’ve sold the bonds, so they already have the cash. What worries investors is whether Oracle will be able to repay the debt.
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