[nerevarthelame]

Still no smoking gun, but possibly Russia. From the video https://youtu.be/aoag03mSuXQ?t=2883:

> A lot of the aliases, like Jia Tan, they sound like Asian names, and the published changes are all timestamped in UTC+8, Beijing time. So the signs point to China. And that's why it's probably not China. I mean, why would they make it that obvious? Every other part of the operation has been so meticulous, so cautious.

> And they also worked on Chinese New Year, but not on Christmas. And over the years, there were nine changes that fall outside of the Beijing time into UTC+2, which is a time zone that includes Israel and parts of Western Russia. That's why some experts have speculated that this could be the work of APT29, a Russian-state-backed hacker group also known as Cozy Bear. But again, do we know? No, of course we don't know who it is, and we likely will never know.

[lrasinen]

UTC+2 isn't very convincing as an argument for Russia. Only the Kaliningrad exclave uses that timezone, and if I were in a state-backed group, I'd live in one of the big cities.

Also quick search suggested UTC+3 was seen during the summer, and Russia doesn't do DST either.

Edit: some of the UTC+2/3 times are attributable to being differences in git committer and author dates (e.g. email patches)

[lrasinen]

I couldn't let this be, so I went through the commits and as far as I can tell, that's the case. The committer/author names and timestamps are consistent with using --author on a commit (... or in a few cases, --amend --author).

Except one: commit 3d1fdddf9 has Jia Tan as both author and committer but the author timestamp is in +0300 while the commit timestamp is +0800.

[chatmasta]

I’ve always found this an amusing method of attribution considering top tier hackers are unlikely to be writing code only during office hours.

[gosub100]

Russians don't celebrate Christmas on the 25th.

[dijit]

That was also what I took away when watching the video. Russians don't celebrate Christmas on the 25th (they Celebrate on January 7th), but even more than that: Russians don't celebrate Christmas the same way we do in the west.

Their "Christmas" family celebrations are on New Years Eve.

So if you're drawing conclusions from them not working on the 25th (which is a literal normal day in eastern europe) then signs point elsewhere unfortunately.

[siddbudd]

ah, Eastern Europe is a homogeneous slop, good to know. The 25th is only celebrated as a national holiday in like 90% of Eastern European countries. Russia and Serbia celebrate it on January 7th instead, and even that is only due to their use of the old Julian calendar. But sure, normal day in a very narrow and obscure definition of Eastern Europe.

[dijit]

Calm your tits, it’s pretty clear I meant slavic nations, and yes: even the January 7th stuff is not celebrated like we do in the west.

I’m trying to convey to people why its materially a red-herring that “russians” wouldn’t work on the 25th: since its a normal day.

[ginko]

>And that's why it's probably not China. I mean, why would they make it that obvious?

That's just what they want you to think!

[mc32]

Those anecdotes don’t mean anything. If I were China and wanted plausible deniability I would work on CNY and take off on foreign holidays. Of course that leaves Beijing time as a weird oversight though it’s always Beijing time anywhere in China.

[ranger_danger]

One can also make commits with any arbitrary date/time(zone) values they want that don't reflect reality.