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by fruitworks 112 days ago
that doesnt seem like super great returns
4 comments

I think it’s the framing. ‘Bet’ makes us think about doubling up.

This guy made a very calculated low risk wager for pretty great near-term rewards. He outperformed most hedge funds over the same period.

If he had gone all in on ‘black’ twice at a Vegas roulette wheel it’d be a more impressive total, but that’s gambling.

~40% in a few months is epic
if you think of it like a bond it’s pretty fantastic. coupon rate 3.5% and you got it at a giant discount to par even though it’s actually (according to this guy’s beliefs which proved correct) nearly certain to be repaid.
It ain't much, but it's honest work.