[ceejayoz]

> It's wild that there are multiple, very serious global conflicts heating up over control of oil…

That's what happens when the "Leader of the Free World" is 79 with dementia with memories of the 1970s oil crisis.

We're not likely to get useful oil out of Venezuela, and any we do get isn't gonna be cost-competitive against solar.

[irishcoffee]

Military vehicles that take oil-derived fuel take diesel, not hydrocarbons. The oil in Venezuela serves that purpose nicely.

No, I am not condoning anything here, just pointing something out.

[ceejayoz]

There’s plenty of diesel available to us that doesn’t require stabilizing an authoritarian Central American nation and rebuilding their oil industry first.

[irishcoffee]

> We're not likely to get useful oil out of Venezuela, and any we do get isn't gonna be cost-competitive against solar.

I was responding to that bit. It isn't accurate.

I also said I don't condone it. Ignoring facts isn't helpful for anyone.

Edit for ratelimiting:

> You think it's likely that the US will manage to create a stable enough government in Venezuela for foreign investment to be successful? What in the history of American regime change efforts gives you this idea?

No. I was simply saying the oil is useful in the military-industrial complex, and it does have value. I've said this twice already. I cannot say if this value will be realized, and for the third time, I don't condone it.

[ceejayoz]

> I was responding to that bit. It isn't accurate.

You think it's likely that the US will manage to create a stable enough government in Venezuela for foreign investment to be successful? What in the history of American regime change efforts gives you this idea?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jan/05/venezuelan-...

> The gamble is a long game, with no guarantee of success. Returning Venezuela’s crude production to 3m barrels of oil a day would require 16 years of work and investment totalling $185bn (£137bn), according to figures from Rystad Energy, a global consultancy.

> At least $30-35bn of international capital would need to be committed in the next two to three years to make this scenario plausible, Rystad said. “This could only be financed by international oil companies, which will consider investments in Venezuela only if they have full confidence in the stability of the country’s systems and its investment climate for international oil and gas players,” it added.

[telotortium]

I think Venezuela and Iran are more about restricting the oil to China in case of a conflict rather than providing energy for the US, although getting ahead of an anticipated demand increase from AI data centers is probably a contributing motivation.

[ceejayoz]

I don't think interdicting Venezuelan oil in a US/China conflict would be too much of a challenge for the US, given... geography. It certainly doesn't require us to control the country or its oil industry.