> Anthropic CEO has stated they have high margins on inference, so training is the big cost center.
I'm pretty sure that in corpo-speak "inference" excludes the cost of datacenter construction, GPUs and other hardware, manual data cleaning, R&D, administration, etc - basically everything except the power bill for inference.
I have absolutely no problem with companies that run inference only - plenty of them offer open models as a service - they're usefull and their accounting can be believed... but they don't have near $ Trillion valuations and they don't misallocate capital on a vast scale as the frontier models do.
The point of the OP is that closed models don't pay for themselves and, on the scale of the US economy, they provide minuscule economic advantages compared to the enormous investments they consume.
They've raise 70-ish billion (which they have not spent all of) and have a run rate of 14 billion/y as of now. All said and done those are great economics so far, even accounting for those extra expenses.
Your argument requires the run rate to reduce over time until OpenAI reaches profitability. However, even OpenAI has publicized that they expect their expenses to exponentially increase for their models to remain competitive.
So they are not profitable now & they have no idea of when they ever will be.
Worse, Gemini has guaranteed funding for continued training whenever the AI hype bubble pops.
Anthropic & OpenAI's only saving grace is that Google is generally terrible at product.
> Your argument requires the run rate to reduce over time until OpenAI reaches profitability
I was talking about Anthropic, but run rates don't need to go down, they just need to scale with revenue. For Anthropic specifically, this seems to already be the case.
OpenAI I don't know much about, but it would make sense if they were running at a terrible loss due to the ubiquity of free ChatGPT.
> Worse, Gemini has guaranteed funding for continued training whenever the AI hype bubble pops.
I don't see a scenario in which Anthropic has any problem financing their activity given their conversion rate of inputs to recurring revenue. Generally, bubbles popping means companies with bad balance sheets and bad economics die, but that just doesn't apply to Anthropic IMO.
OpenAI though, hard to say. They've lost all of the good will being the first mover gave them at this point, so they'll need to really lead product to make the economics work for them.
> Is it actually being sold at a steep discount? Anthropic CEO has stated they have high margins on inference, so training is the big cost center.
They're spending more than they're making. For the foreseeable future, saying "we could be profitable if we stopped training" if goofy, because they can't stop. If they do, no one will want to use their product because it will be overtaken by competitors within three months.
I get it that in 10 years all of this might peak and we're gonna be content using old models, but that'll be a very different landscape and Anthropic might not be a part of it anymore if they don't start making money before that.
> I get it that in 10 years all of this might peak and we're gonna be content using old models
I would personally be happy using gpt 5.3 codex for the foreseeable future, with just improvements in harnesses
IMO we're already at the point where even if these company collapse and the models end up being sold at the cost of inference (no new training), we would be massively ahead
That's a perfectly valid approach if you can balance capex and revenue. Why stop and try to be profitable when the economy is giving you the liquidity to push that down the road?
Models are already super useful, but if you can make them more useful by burning cash people are willing to hand you, why not?
Well, training isn't going to end soon if these companies keep on competing with one another whilst being neck-and-neck, so I'm not sure why you would ignore the cost of training in the ROI calculation.
Amodei says yes - each model pays for its training. But they're scaling up investment for each new run, so they're still happily in the red.
And also that may be the case for Anthropic who have fewer free users, a large enterprise business, and less generous rate limits on their subscriptions. I don't know if OpenAI or Google have commented. I suspect OpenAI is in a worse position given their massive non-paying consumer base.
They have good margins on inference at API costs, i.e. $5/$25 per mtok input/output. They are almost certainly making losses on subscriptions, at least if people max out rate limits.
In the past 30 days I have burned $78.19 in API token costs with my $20/month Claude Pro subscription. In January I burnt over $300 in API token costs.
Because the power users of the max plan are subsidized at the upper end of usage by people who don’t approach the per account limit. In other words, the power users are getting more than they pay for, because most people don’t reach that threshold. If you let the power users have dozens of accounts, it has a multiple effect on the proportion of accounts breaching the profitability line.
They are likely aiming to maximize reach/mindshare. Get as many people hooked as possible. More important than minor upside from a few multi-Max users.
EDIT: also, the casual or gym-style members that pay every month but barely use the service are of course very valuable wrt margins
I'm pretty sure that in corpo-speak "inference" excludes the cost of datacenter construction, GPUs and other hardware, manual data cleaning, R&D, administration, etc - basically everything except the power bill for inference.
I have absolutely no problem with companies that run inference only - plenty of them offer open models as a service - they're usefull and their accounting can be believed... but they don't have near $ Trillion valuations and they don't misallocate capital on a vast scale as the frontier models do.
The point of the OP is that closed models don't pay for themselves and, on the scale of the US economy, they provide minuscule economic advantages compared to the enormous investments they consume.