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by embedding-shape 121 days ago
AFAIK, it's been stabilizing lately at the current price, so at least it's not increasing anymore: https://pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/

By the same time next year the prices likely gone down, although maybe not to the pre-increase, but surely much lower than currently. Putting it in my calendar to revisit this comment in a year :)
1 comments
Forgeties79 121 days ago
Stabilized at 5x (or more), a change that occurred over like 3mo.

Grocery prices have also stabilized but I’m still paying too much ha

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embedding-shape 121 days ago
Well, if all the doomers and gloomers were correct that this is the end of hardware at home, we'd see the price continue to increase, and suppliers trying to ramp up production, even if it'd take long time.

The fact that it stabilized (at whatever price) and that suppliers aren't even thinking about ramping up production, should tell people that the doomers and gloomers were yet again over-reacting to things they don't fully understand themselves.

> Grocery prices have also stabilized but I’m still paying too much

I think that's a local problem, if you happen to live in a country that's trying to move over to isolationism rather than globalism as of late. In other modern countries the prices are also increasing, but at least following inflation somewhat so the increase doesn't seem as bad for us. Maybe at least yet? Who knows.

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jeroenhd 121 days ago
> Well, if all the doomers and gloomers were correct that this is the end of hardware at home, we'd see the price continue to increase, and suppliers trying to ramp up production, even if it'd take long time.

Ramping up production takes months and paying back the price to ramp up production takes years. Manufacturers have started investing in more production capacity but it'll take a while before supply can be sold off.

Based on interviews with industry professionals, I believe the forecast is that RAM prices will start going down again between August and the end of next year. Until then, prices will climb as stock depletes and RAM production is capped.

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embedding-shape 121 days ago
> Manufacturers have started investing in more production capacity

Where are you getting this from? Because that's not what I've seen, if anything the industry seems to lowering the production capacity, not increasing it.

And even if it takes years, if they thought it was a sustainable growth in demand, they'd at least be moving in that direction which again, doesn't seem to be happening.

> I believe the forecast is that RAM prices will start going down again between August and the end of next year. Until then, prices will climb as stock depletes and RAM production is capped.

You're already wrong with this today, prices stopped climbing already and have been stabilizing at the current prices... https://pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/

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lenkite 120 days ago
That is a mere short-term growth plateau as buyers curtail back spending - which has already happened twice - not true stabilization. Analyst firms like Trendforce expect 15-20% more increase well into end of Q2/Q3.

https://www.trendforce.com/price/dram/dram_contract https://www.trendforce.com/price/dram/dram_spot

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Forgeties79 121 days ago
Smart money says by Jan 2026 ram prices will not be anywhere near where they were 6mo ago, but we’ll see I suppose.
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