[SirensOfTitan]

I think the clear point of this piece is that we have the space and opportunity now to ask ourselves as a group: what are we doing? Who actually stands to benefit from the massive devaluation of services in an economy that is buoyed by service-based roles?

There has been so little thought to the multi-order effects of the future we're pushing toward, and even if AI fails to deliver on its lofty promises, it will likely cause an economic crisis in its collapse.

The people saying that AI will rapidly drive costs down are frankly delusional. The things that people actually need to live like food, shelter, and clothes all have inputs that are physical and real. Even if AI somehow can drive the input costs of those things down, it will be delayed, and people will suffer in the interim.

The AI future that I worry about isn't the terminators coming to get us, it is the top 0.1% using this technology to accumulate more wealth. Unlike feudalism, however, the feudal lords will not be dependent on or responsible for the serfs, they can rely on a small minority of humans for production of critical goods for themselves.

These wealthy people don't really hide how they feel either[1], they are clearly stating their contempt for the unwashed masses below them. As Lasch predicted in his "Revolt of the Elites," they are separating themselves entirely from culture in favor of their own insulated fiefdoms. This is already happening: companies more than ever are orienting toward ultra-luxury: from travel, to housing, and everything in-between.

[1]: https://www.thenation.com/article/society/peter-thiel-billio...

[jstummbillig]

> Who actually stands to benefit from the massive devaluation of services in an economy that is buoyed by service-based roles?

Everyone, if it comes with productivity gains. We will need good tools to distribute the gains.

[lm28469]

None of the productivity increase of the last 50 years have benefited the workers, there is absolutely no reason for that to change

Is everyone on this website 20 years old? They pulled the same shit with automation, with computers, with internet, with cryptos, and now with ai,... And people keep falling for the same bs over and over again. "the three day workweek", "we'll retire at 45", &c.

https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/

[triceratops]

That's not strictly true. Lots of things got cheaper because of productivity increases - food, clothing, consumer goods to name a few. Housing, medical care, and education went in exactly the opposite direction.

[vjvjvjvjghv]

“ We will need good tools to distribute the gains.”

As of now there are basically no such tools. Everything is geared towards letting owners accumulate more and more. We would probably need highly progressive taxes to get some level of distribution

[SirensOfTitan]

You're assuming that the gains from productivity improvements distribute themselves broadly. The last 50 years have clearly shown that this is certainly not the case unless there is political intervention. The elites and the political class attached to them will assign whatever meanger rations they can to avoid revolution but not much else.

Not to mention: the grand majority of the US's GDP is wrapped up into services. If AI can flatten the skill floor so that anyone from anywhere in the world can produce 80% of the output of a US or European skilled worker at a fraction of the cost, what do you think happens? We're doing to US white collar work what offshoring did to manufacturing, but it'll be faster and to the only healthy cohort of economic actors in the US.

AI does not control the inputs of lumber or vegetables.

> We will need good tools to distribute the gains.

There is enormous handwaving happening here. Tools built by whom? The US can hardly pass a budget now, and its dominant political movement is allergic to questions of wealth redistribution. And as I already mentioned, the wealthy class in the US is clearly openly contemptuous of the idea that they owe anything to the broader population.

[jstummbillig]

> You're assuming that the gains from productivity improvements distribute themselves broadly

No, I am assuming the opposite. I agree: We do need political intervention.

[SirensOfTitan]

Right. So then when is the best time for labor to act to ensure those mechanisms are put in place? Before or after AI has eliminated its leverage?

Like I totally realize we're agreed in some sense, but some form of socialism now in the US seems politically untenable, and as soon as AI actually starts making service labor obsolete, we lose our leverage. How do we do something about it?

[jstummbillig]

How do you mean "eliminating the leverage"? White collar jobs go first, robots are right behind. I am relatively certain everyone will be scared shitless of where this is potentially going fairly soon.

The leverage will simply come from existing and being in the same group as roughly ~everyone on the planet.

[SirensOfTitan]

I mean like: being alive isn't leverage, but controlling the economic output that has made elites rich is.

Mass economic displacement often doesn't produce solidarity, it produces fragmentation, scapegoating, and strongmen. People won't agree on why things are bad.

And the state is way more sophisticated than during the labor movements of the last century or two. If it is aligned with the elites and the masses have no leverage, it has numerous tools for massive surveillance, police and military control, and propaganda that will only get more effective through AI. They might not even need the extreme levers, mass confusion alone might be enough.

There's that old joke: "I have to admit, I'm always so impressed by Soviet propaganda. You really know how to get people worked up," the CIA agent says.

"Thank you," the KGB says. "We do our best but truly, it's nothing compared to American propaganda. Your people believe everything your state media tells them."

The CIA agent drops his drink in shock and disgust. "Thank you friend, but you must be confused... There's no propaganda in America."

[botusaurus]

parent is saying at that stage the powerfull will not need you anymore

so you become target practice