[hibikir]

The issue comes from situations where the insiders can alter the answer to help their own bets. The simple example is the bet on how long a press conference will be: It's a ridiculous bet when the person giving said press conference can bet and fleece the market.

Will X country invade another before or after day X? A large enough market changes the answer, as the agent can change the decision. And we can see this kind of thing in many interesting questions.

[0x3f]

These are not secret divinations though, the participants know this and price it in or otherwise allow it to determine which markets they participate in.