[chasd00]

your post doesn't make a lot of sense and it doesn't matter anyway. What happened in 2008/9 and what may eventually unfold in the AI bubble aren't comparable.

> Show must go on.

the show will go on without bailing out OpenAI, that much should be obvious to everyone.

[sifar]

There is a distinct possibility that the credit expansion for the datacenter buildout will turn the AI bubble into a 2008 like situation. That would be painful.

[burnte]

True., however I think it'll probably be more like the fiber buddle in the dotcom era, withsome bankruptcies and a lot of excess capacity. I don't think it'll spread as wide as 08 because that had bad debt sprinkled so far and wide that everything was infected. I think this is more contained. I think. I hope. Because the pop is coming...

[micik]

OpenAI is not the one who will be requiring the bailout. they aren't even a public company, for one.

Oracle, Coreweave or both will be the ones requiring it, ostensibly. in reality it's much larger than that.

tremendous money has been invested into AI already, commitments for far more spending still have been made, contracts signed and funds borrowed. the DC building sites are abuzz with expensive effort and soon racks will welcome fresh batches of not-so-fresh previous gen GPUs.

investment is roaring like a locomotive joy-ride atop tracks freshly laid. AI executives are also roaring on any talk show and podcast that will have them but the path to profitability still leads through a maze of smoke and mirrors and hasn't been exactly charted.

you think the LPs of VC firms will just write off the losses when those are realized? O&C will just default on loans and their many creditors will let them?

there are tens if not hundreds of billions already locked in the storm cloud beyond the point of no return. financiers from all corners of finance and sundry are already holding a compartment or two in that bag, each.

when the bag turns out to be largely filled with hot air, i suppose all those powerful bagholders will just go "welp, we dun goof'd" and hold a Sprint Retro about the learnings that will be their consolation prize for the financial haircuts suffered.

perhaps if they had no other option, they would. they do have that other option and the debts in risk of default which, something tells me, creditors won't be able to write off without being pushed to the brink themselves, are the wedge already planted in the financial system the bailout breeze draft will gently blow through.

P.S. it's not that Oracle or any of the Magnate 7 are devoid of means to patch up the fabric of a battered balance sheet.

that wasn't the case in 2008, either. it's a little known and even less appreciated fact that parties tied up in Lehman on day of Chapter 11 filing were made whole to the tune of 100 cents on the dollar after all was said and done in the post-bankruptcy proceedings. sure it took 10 years but it happened.

in the heat of the moment, though, there's a burning hole in the pocket, runs on the bank imminent if not in motion already and 401 millions of voices crying out in anguish.

that's no time for methodical disbursement, it's time for the hair-on-fire vaudeville act Wall Street had gotten rather good at throughout the numerous reruns of that particular number they performed to date.

it will be politically absolutely unacceptable and a burning public grievance for numerous news cycles. so what? as if that spectacle of manifest outrage, justified and futile, was anything but jolly good entertainment for those looking on at it from the gallery.