In the US one of the best demographic predictor of homicide rates is skin color. For instance, super white places like New Hampshire with the ~loosest gun laws in the country have extremely low murder rates.
If you take a look at say a heat map of the US where homicide is[1], it tracks extremely closely to where the black population is (New Mexico an outlier despite having stronger gun laws than most the surrounding states besides Colorado).[2]
What's also fascinating is that this metric is consistent even when controlling for socioeconomic status - ruling out "unfair circumstances! less opportunities!" arguments.
Going from 0.05 to 0.06 is also a "big surge".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-r...