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by aurizon 117 days ago
I wonder how the huge slug of memory that might now have to re-direct mid-ramp as this (and other AI pullbacks) ramify forward? Will Crucial re-enter the desktop market? Or will it create a slow/fast subsidence in memory? We will live in interesting times..
1 comments

Considering how gasoline pricing works, RAM prices will likely decay at 1/xth the rate that the grew, so that retailers can capture maximum profit per price point before lowering to the next, and manufacturers can hold the oversupply in reserve for more AI demand. I would expect possible sharp price drop events (depending on the overage levels) just after the end of e.g. Micron’s financial years, though, as they will have unloaded the overflow at discount bulk pricing enabling some retailers to undercut the pre-unload pricing and resuming somewhat rational market behavior.
The next-financial-quarter-only mindset is just baiting CXMT into capturing >70% of the market, if they are able to scale their production. Once consumers trust the brand, it's all over for Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung's dominance.
Looking forward to it for sure. Are they doing registered ECC in DDR5 yet? Last I checked I only found their DDR4 line.
100% just question of time, tracking their IPO