[stackbutterflow]

In conclusion from the `What you realistically can't avoid` section is that running entirely on non american services will never happen.

Unless some entity pours hundreds of billions (trillions?) of euros into solving this over multiple decades there will be no way to replace google ads and sign in with google/apple. The AI part seems to be the easiest thing to solve in the list, that says something.

[ben_w]

In the history of geopolitics, even with what little I've learned of it, "will never happen" can be as soon as two years.

[yoavm]

Billions of euros over multiple decades? Why?

Seems to me like it's mainly regulation. The thing that makes people in China, or Russia, for example, not use Google - isn't that Yandex / Baidu got tons of investments. It is that people can't easily access Google. If the EU decides to pull the switch (or if the US decides to do so), we have enough competence people here to build a search engine.

[okanat]

That's where democratic governments at a disadvantage. Europe is also more integrated into US market. For example, killing access to Google ads ecosystem will make 100s of thousands or even millions of people unemployed. Apple and Google have multiple offices in Europe. A divorce with US will again make a huge amount of people lose their very high paying jobs. Unlike China and Russia those people can vote.

Moreover, in democracies companies from other countries usually get more say and have more lobbying power. Open market system gives more decision powers to global players. Whereas in China or Russia, if you are not serving the goals of the dictatorial rule, you get ousted permanently without a fear of elections.

[yoavm]

I think those things are very hard to predict. Yes, many Europeans will stop working for American companies and lose their very high paying jobs. On the other hand, the EU as a whole will stop sending billions of euros to the American economy, and at least some of this money will be invested in creating local alternatives; Those who worked for American companies will probably find their place in these alternatives.

Everything you wrote about the open market system is true, except it seems like that system have died over the past year. Europeans understand now that the US isn't a friend.

[okanat]

My worry there isn't (just) Europeans who directly work for American companies but Europeans who work in the _markets_ that US companies created.

For example almost all digital marketing agencies are almost pure resellers of big tech products: ads on Facebook, Google or Microsoft networks. Similarly majority backend solutions are delivered over 3 big cloud providers' specialized products like AWS Lambda or GCP BigQuery. The definition of Mobile Software developer is someone who writes software for Google or Apple platforms. The entire fields will disappear overnight.

[usrnm]

Google was freely available in Russia up until 2022 and Yandex still had a larger market share. It really was a solid competitor to Google, much better than anything the EU ever had.

[wvh]

While it's true Europe might not be producing the next Apple or Google, there are lots of alternatives, like national academic login systems, logging into third parties with bank credentials or government IDs... Solutions that depend less on one commercial company capturing the market, that are in place on a national level and work well. It's a different landscape. Factors like current day political turmoil make people much less trusting of "American" solutions. It remains to be seen if this goes beyond sentiment into some actual pan-European solutions that (claim to) safeguard privacy and data.

[stackbutterflow]

What about non EU users? Americans don't second guess themselves when they slap google/apple/meta sign in only. They know everyone in the world will never pause when they see their logo on the buttons. To reach this scale of worldwide adoption for a European service requires a massive amount of investment.

What's even the entry point? Google and Apple make the devices that everyone uses. Even if you build a service like you suggested, how do you ensure that everyone is using it?

[danelski]

> They know everyone in the world will never pause when they see their logo on the buttons.

As in, that they won't run away when they see them or that they will all happily use them? If you mean the latter, then it's just false. Also, why do you assume that such product would need to be used worldwide all of a sudden? Having something for the local market would be sufficient to call it a success in this instance. There's an ICC judge who could tell you a thing or two about having a whole digital life on the hook of services from one country, so reducing this dependency is a clear benefit.

[stackbutterflow]

> Also, why do you assume that such product would need to be used worldwide all of a sudden

Because I'm talking about not running on any American services. Which Americans can do and do all the time. I don't see how we can reach a point where we can one day not include google/apple sign in and not lose a massive number of potential users. Sure it's possible that one day we'll see a "Sign in with EU login" but below it they're always be sign in with google/apple, for a very long time.

[danelski]

That post mostly concerned infrastructure, you won't likely run the same managed DB with 2 different providers, for example, but you can well offer sign-in with EU/non-EU options, and as long as the first one is viable, I'd say that would already be a win in terms of OP's goals.

[GeorgeOldfield]

the problem is - these don't work unless everyone uses them worldwide.

[willy__]

Yeah, they sell you that with the devices. You would need to crack iOS/Android dominance first before you could realistically consider NOT assuming someone has at least one or the other account.

[deaux]

Agreed mate, it took absolute trillions of Euros for "Sign in with VK" to become a common option in Russia. No clue how they did it while also waging wars.

"Sign in with LINE" in Japan? Quintillions of Yen were spent.

[stackbutterflow]

Sign in with LINE and not a single American logo on the log in page?

Also what about AI? Can't solve that with a sub billion euros of investment.

[pjc50]

It's possible that will get ""solved"" overnight when some critical service gets cut off or banned in one direction or the other for political reasons.

[GeorgeOldfield]

yeah I think trillions alone wouldn't be enough to replicate Apple's success and market dominance (especially the most valuable demographic)

[palata]

This is a weird take. It is completely arbitrary.

I could say that you cannot run entirely on US technology, because electronics comes from China. Does that mean that we should just strive to move everything to China, so that we only depend on them?

Makes no sense to me.