[pjc50]

Not sure about that; why does the US have a huge number of troops in Germany in the first place? Defence, or occupation?

It seems to me that the objectives until ~2014 were to (a) provide moral and a small amount of physical support for the War on Terror; (b) sell US weapons, such as the F-35; and (c) ensure that European defence centered around NATO, under US control, and not the EU. The US wanted Europe to have enough capability to assist the US, but not to go off on adventures of its own and certainly not (going all the way back to the Washington Naval Treaty here) enough military might to resist the US or start another European empire.

That is, the strategy from WW2 until fairly recently was to prevent Germany re-arming. Just as the large deployment in Japan is to prevent Japan from re-arming just as much as it is there to defend the Pacific from China.

[inglor_cz]

"huge number of troops in Germany in the first place?"

I wouldn't call 35000 troops of mostly non-combat specializations a "huge number". In the Cold War, the American presence in West Germany was an order of magnitude larger, about quarter a million soldiers.

"Defence, or occupation?"

Neither/nor. Logistics for various distant operations. Rhineland is a very practical stop located between the US and the Middle East + North Africa (MENA), closer to MENA, with highly developed maintenance and repair facilities, communication facilities, top-notch hospitals for casualties etc.

If a GI Joe gets seriously injured in Kabul or Baghdad or now possibly Tehran, they are airlifted to Ramstein. If an armored vehicle gets damaged by a roadside bomb and the local mechanics cannot fix it on the spot, dtto.

General Hodges wrote several articles on how dumb the current administration is to alienate Europe, because without access to such facilities, any deployment in the wider region becomes very challenging. Even the original invasion of Iraq was somewhat complicated by the Irish refusing the use of Shannon airport for US military aircraft.

[PearlRiver]

This reminds me of Afghanistan. It was a very difficult war for the US because they had no bases in the region and Afghanistan was surrounded by hostile/unstable nations.

[T-A]

A.k.a. "Keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down"

https://unherd.com/2017/10/keeping-russians-americans-german...

[graemep]

The time when Europe had the capability to go off on adventures of its own or be a threat to the US is past. European economies are no longer big enough proportionately. Compare a lit of the world's largest economies from 40 years ago to now.

[T-A]

In purchasing power parity terms, a glance at Wikipedia yields

China: $43.491 trillion [1]

USA: $31.821 trillion [2]

EU: $30.184 trillion [3]

UK: $4.59 trillion [4]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_China

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom

[graemep]

Now compare that to the same numbers from 40 years ago.

Then do the same with nominal GDP which is a better measure for this IMO as you cannot buy anything in global markets at PPP.

[T-A]

> Now compare that to the same numbers from 40 years ago.

That turns out to be easier than I thought thanks to [1]. In 1986 it looked like this (PPP, million USD):

China: 647,219

USA: 4,579,625

EU ex UK: 4,368,019

UK: 805,518

EU total: 5,173,537 [2]

The big standout is obviously China's rise since then.

> Then do the same with nominal GDP which is a better measure for this IMO as you cannot buy anything in global markets at PPP.

I disagree; we are comparing three global powers which would be quite capable of satisfying their needs internally if need be. Feel free to post your own calculations if you want, but be careful with dates and exchange rates; the USD index is down about 9% over the past year.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_...

[2] In 1986, the EU had 12 members: Belgium (161,613), Denmark (100,996), France (866,333), West Germany (1,319,247), Greece (120,566), Ireland (40,169), Italy (953,257), Luxembourg (10,542), Netherlands (246,164), Portugal (92,824), Spain (456,308) and UK (805,518):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_enlargement_of_the_Europe...

[graemep]

Your link to the list of past PPP GDPs does not say what unit is used - it says "international dollars" without specifying an year.

> but be careful with dates and exchange rates

The numbers you are quoting are already corrected for that.

> I disagree; we are comparing three global powers which would be quite capable of satisfying their needs internally if need be

Not my intention at all. My claim was about Europe's ability to act independently of the US and "go off on adventures" - i.e. the ability to project military and economic power. Europe is not a global power, it is a potential alliance of mid size powers.

> The big standout is obviously China's rise since then.

The big change is that everyone else has risen since then. while Europe has stagnated. If you look at this list of countries by PPP GDP you will see India, Indonesia and Brazil are ahead of the UK and France. The only European country in the top five is Russia! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

[T-A]

> Your link to the list of past PPP GDPs does not say what unit is used - it says "international dollars" without specifying an year.

Irrelevant since we are comparing relative sizes, like EU vs US, now and then.

>> but be careful with dates and exchange rates > The numbers you are quoting are already corrected for that.

Indeed, that's why I use them instead of the nominal ones you requested. My warning was about the latter.

> My claim was about Europe's ability to act independently of the US and "go off on adventures"

Your claim, quoted verbatim, was this:

> The time when Europe had the capability to go off on adventures of its own or be a threat to the US is past. European economies are no longer big enough proportionately.

The GDP figures say otherwise: US and EU were and are roughly equal, EU + UK were and are larger.

I am willing to grant you half a point: neither US nor EU are large enough to separately dominate the world like they once did. Together, they are still #1.

> Europe is not a global power, it is a potential alliance of mid size powers.

The EU is a little more than "potential". Currently ineffective, yes, but that's the topic of the article. Says right in the subtitle: "Without America to rely on, the EU is gearing up to be a global power in its own right."

> The big change is that everyone else has risen since then. while Europe has stagnated.

If that is the case, then it's evident from the relative GDP figures now and 40 years ago that the US has stagnated just about as much, which contradicts your original claim.

> The only European country in the top five is Russia!

Breaking out individual European countries instead of considering the EU as a whole (the topic of the article you are ostensibly commenting) makes about as much sense as breaking out individual US states instead of considering the US as a whole.

[Swenrekcah]

It seemed like it was the past, but it might become so again. Europe will never trust the US for defence again, which means it has to build up all defence capabilities internally. This will take many many years, but it seems almost inevitable now that it will happen.

When enough time has passed with Europe self sufficient in defence, there might arise cases where US and Europe has a conflict of interest that results in an armed conflict. Perhaps at first via proxy states depending on the type of conflict.

[saubeidl]

Europe is taking over America's back yard as we speak. Power isn't just raw numbers. It's bureaucracy and shaping the rules of engagement.

https://apnews.com/article/mercosur-european-union-trade-agr...

[Taikonerd]

I would also say (d) make it clear to the Soviet Union that, if they invaded West Germany, it would not just be an intra-European war; it would be a world war.

[pjc50]

Sure, but that rationale went away in the early 1990s and they stayed for thirty years longer than that.

[Taikonerd]

True. Institutions like that have a lot of momentum, and they sometimes outlive their original rationale.

But on the other hand, Russian aggression is back in the headlines these days...

[expedition32]

Aircraft carriers cannot replace military bases. That is why they stayed.

The US can support all of its military operations in Africa and the Middle East from its vast cold war era infrastructure in Europe.

[saubeidl]

An intricate plan designed to further US interests, wrecked by an ignoramus who didn't understand it.