[laffOr]

Being a tailor is scalable, that's way there are way, way more cheap machine produced clothes today than in the past. Surely he did not miss that the textile industry was at the core of industrial revolution. So being a tailor is more like a post-scaling job - the automation has already happened and now there are only remnants left.

But how can you be sure a job is peak-automated? A few years ago, I would have said musicians are post-scaling - way fewer musicians jobs now that you can play recorded music. But it looks like generative AI will hit musicians again. Can some of welding be automated? Probably.

[fuzzfactor]

>how can you be sure a job is peak-automated?

Probably the best way is to spend a few years working for a company where you can get a better picture whether it seems that way or not.

[scoofy]

I mean a tailor who adjusts clothes and occasionally makes something bespoke.

Tailors typically operate a launderette and act as middlemen to a local dry cleaner.

I’m not talking about a fancy man making clothes for rich people, I’m talking about the talented old lady in you neighborhood who adjusts your clothing for $50 and runs a wash and fold.

[fuzzfactor]

>Can some of welding be automated?

Huge amounts have been doing it for decades.

Manual work pays better than ever though.

And plenty of alterations going on all the time after all the automation dust had settled manufacturing most fashions, a lot less manual work is of course being done but it's still everywhere. You do have to be good or you're not going to do half as well as you could though.

The thing is, automation should be expected to slow or stall sooner or later, automation's not suitable for every little bit of welding or sewing that needs to keep going on. Only the most suitable, of course ;)

These are just random examples, if you want to make absolutely sure you won't be automated away by the internet, build a valuable skill that doesn't depend on the internet at all, nor look anywhere near the places where automation is emerging that it wasn't doing before.

If you eventually figure out how to automate that skill it would be something.

Just like the internet though, there can be extra credit for being first :)

One of the most valuable things to be able to build single-handedly is something that can not be mass-produced by any stretch of the imagination.

You might stick with that alone, or pivot to something with more of a financial upside, but you would always have something to fall back on if needed. Plus give you less worry about taking financial risks than you would have been, considering the same resources and/or capital to work with.

And on a regular basis revisit how far you can stretch your imagination to see if your baseline fallback still doesn't look like it will ever be automated in a way that would effect you.

[laffOr]

Yes, but this is simply the remnants of the old tailor occupation, post automation. The talented old lady would have had a lot more business in clothes making in the past, no need for a wash & fold.

[hn_acc1]

My mom altered clothing when I was younger - and she darned socks too. My M-I-L still sews the occasional seam for pants that are too long and were cut for my wife or daughters.

But me? I buy a pair of $30 jeans at Costco. If they don't fit great, I buy a different pair of $30 jeans. I don't spend $50 to have them altered, or take it to a laundrette. If it can't be washed in our home washer/dryer, I don't buy it. And these days, when a sock gets a hole? I throw it away.

[scoofy]

This is an effective strategy if you're a fit model, or close to one. If you're within the standard deviation of the sizing chart, you'll probably do fine most of the time.

I like golf. Most people use a standard shaft. In fact, that shaft length is standard because most people use it. That doesn't mean there isn't an entire industry for "golf fittings" because "most" people isn't even close to everyone.

[hn_acc1]

I'm in the "obese" category - 6'1", 230 lbs+. I can still wear more or less off-the-rack jeans. 40x30/38x30 (+ belt) is my size. If anything, I could use help finding the right shoes to fit. But so far, with foam insoles, I've always been able to find some kind of shoe I can wear ok.

Golf is a luxury. I've played a full course (not driving range) maybe 5 times in my life, all in Canada, because I had a couple of friends, and it was way cheaper there (IMHO). Pretty sure exactly zero people would pay me to help them size their golf club shaft when I probably couldn't break 120 on an easy course. Should I invest 10 years of expensive golfing to get to a point (BIG MAYBE!!!) where I could get close to par, so that someone would pay me? Unless I was already a golf fanatic and doing so on my own, the investment hardly seems worth it.

Now you'll say it's not golf for me - but that's my point - YES, there ARE boutique industries that don't scale (for now) where you can make some $$. IF you've already invested thousands of hours anyway to be close to an expert, AND are a people person (can sell yourself or you talents), it's possible. And if you think that can't be automated.. Pretty sure someone could tweak a golf simulator to measure shaft length vs. player height, etc and get good enough for 95% of the population. Above that, it's luxury/vanity for rich people to have a "caddy" or whatever - that's really hard to count on, especially if you live in an area where people don't golf much, or there aren't many rich people, or you don't have the connections. No rich person is going to look through the yellow pages (insert search mechanism of your choice) to find a golf pro - they'll talk to their buddies.

Does the average person have this kind of highly developed, specialized ability in ANY field? Probably not. I've played slowpitch softball for 30+ years for fun. And I'm probably a bit above average for my age in terms of being able to hit the ball due to that - there are still thousands of other players in the area better than I am, and none of them are getting paid to recommend bats.. And if they are, most of them are getting minimum wage at a sporting goods store. Age isn't a factor, so I'm competing against everyone who can swing a bat.

So sure, there ARE things that may not scale yet (and may never) - but the very thing that makes it hard to scale probably also makes it hard for the average person to become good at, and then offer a service that will actually pay them a living wage.

[fuzzfactor]

Well, that's why there are so few people doing this full-time any more.

But at least they're not going to disappear completely.

And now there's nowhere to go but up :)

They have had the internet a while too, keep in mind a select few have gone viral on Etsy while so many SaaS things don't return a fraction of their potential.

[tdeck]

How many people visit either kind of business these days? I'm almost 35 and have never once gotten any garment tailored. I think one reason is that clothes are so cheap you can just keep looking and you'll find something that fits, which seems to be what most people do nowadays.

[djhn]

Try it. You might be missing out! One of the benefits of getting all your trousers from a tailor made to your size is you never have to waste time trying on trousers, or waste time ordering-returning items.

[iamgopal]

Welding is being heavily targeted for automation, apart from pressure vessels etc, most welding can be automated now a days , very soon ( months? ) every welding can be automated.

[throwawaytea]

You're thinking of factory welding, manufacturing or maybe repetitive pipeline welding and thinks like that.

It'll be a while until a robot disassembles a trailer enough to remove the bent axle, cleans off all the paint and rust, bends the trailer back into shape where needed, cuts a custom support to makeup for some lost strength, welds it in, primers it, paints it, and assembles the trailer.

Same for construction too.

[iamgopal]

If automation excels sufficiently, robot will replace bent axle with new one automatically, repair cost will be usually higher than replace cost if all things are automated

[throwawaytea]

The axle gets replaced even today. The thing we were welding was the frame.

[geoffmanning]

Will it tho? I wonder. We're on the brink of a robotic revolution.