[throwaway150]

So is there anything that would actually satisfy crowd here?

Offer $25K and it is "How dare a trillion dollar company pay so little?"

Offer $250K and it is "Hmm. Exception! Must be marketing!"

What precisely is an acceptable number?

[cwillu]

One is a lament that the industry average is so low, and the other is… a lament that the industry average is so low. What's the problem?

[hsbauauvhabzb]

An increase in the average bug payout. Bounty programs pay low on average.

[idiotsecant]

A number better than what the exploit could be sold for on the black market

[i_am_jl]

I don't believe those numbers will ever come close to converging, let alone bounty prices surpassing black market prices.

It seems like these vulnerabilities will always be more valuable to people who can guarantee that their use will generate a return than to people who will use them to prevent a theoretical loss.

Beyond that, selling zero-days is a seller's market where sellers can set prices and court many buyers, but bug bounties are a buyer's market where there is only one buyer and pricing is opaque and dictated by the buyer.

So why would anyone ever take a bounty instead of selling on the black market? Risk! You might get arrested or scammed selling an exploit on the black market, black market buyers know that, so they price it in to offers.

[bri3d]

Even though I agree with the conclusion with respect to pricing, I don't think this comment is generally accurate.

Most* valuable exploits can be sold on the gray market - not via some bootleg forum with cryptocurrency scammers or in a shadowy back alley for a briefcase full of cash, but for a simple, taxed, legal consulting fee to a forensics or spyware vendor or a government agency in a vendor shaped trenchcoat, just like any other software consulting income.

The risk isn't arrest or scam, it's investment and time-value risk. Getting a bug bounty only requires (generally) that a bug can pass for real; get a crash dump with your magic value in a good looking place, submit, and you're done.

Selling an exploit chain on the gray market generally requires that the exploit chain be reliable, useful, and difficult to detect. This is orders of magnitude more difficult and is extremely high-risk work not because of some "shady" reason, but because there's a nonzero chance that the bug doesn't actually become useful or the vendor patches it before payout.

The things you see people make $500k for on the gray market and the things you see people make $20k for in a bounty program are completely different deliverables even if the root cause / CVE turns out to be the same.

*: For some definition of most, obviously there is an extant "true" crappy cryptocurrency forum black market for exploits but it's not very lucrative or high-skill compared to the "gray market;" these places are a dumping ground for exploits which are useful only for crime and/or for people who have difficulty doing even mildly legitimate business (widely sanctioned, off the grid due to personal history, etc etc.)

I see that someone linked an old tptacek comment about this topic which per the usual explains things more eloquently, so I'll link it again here too: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43025038

[gbalduzzi]

> So why would anyone ever take a bounty instead of selling on the black market? Risk!

I like to believe there are also ethics involved in most cases

[idiotsecant]

Systems that rely on ethical behaviour to function generally dont last long

[gbalduzzi]

That is why I said "also", it should not be the only factor.

The conversation was moving between two possibilities only: either collect bug bounties or sell on the black market. I believe most (again: most, not all) security researchers collecting bug bounties right now would not start selling on the black market in case bounties disappeared. They would change their focus to something else to sustain themselves

[hsbauauvhabzb]

The market is priced at the point that the most economic for the business. Apple buying an exploit for $100m is not worth it (to apple) vs the potential loss of life of people who might be killed if sold on the black market. Buying an exploit for 1m prevents them being used to jailbreak, is good PR, and is ass covering PR insurance in case an Apple exploit cause loss of life (‘the seller could have sold to us, but instead they sold it to an evil corporation’).

[seanw444]

Not sure why you're getting downvoted. It's the unfortunate reality.

[DiggyJohnson]

You can work your day job and make $20-500k/yr or pursue drug dealing and make $5-5000k/yr. I don’t think that’s actually a compelling argument for the latter even if the opportunity cost is better.

[hsbauauvhabzb]

Drugs are illegal, exploits are not illegal. Selling them to someone associated with illegal activity is probably illegal, but there is a legitimate fully legal exploit market with buyers like intelligence agencies, and an illegal market with buyers that run oppressive regimes and commit genocide.