[danaris]

There's zero chance that Musk will have suddenly "solved" FSD in a day, a week, or a year. He's not an engineer; he's a money man, and a grifter.

That's why people keep giving Tesla money: because Musk has fooled so many people into believing he's this amazing engineer, who could, possibly, "solve" FSD overnight—and, moreover, has gotten them to buy into it so deeply that they have tied their identity into that belief, and so in order to continue to cling to it, they reject empirical evidence of both his lack of qualifications and his outright crimes.

[maxbond]

Well he certainly wouldn't but the engineers working for Tesla might, with a probability that is very low but greater than 0. It's much higher (but still low) in 1 year, 5 years, 10 years. Tomorrow is a metanym for the future.

But to be very clear I not only don't think they will but I don't think that they think they will, or they wouldn't be shifting focus to Optimus. I'm not invested in Tesla except for my exposure through index funds.

If anyone who is a fan of Tesla can get through this article without changing their mind. Well. Bless their heart.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/08/29/tesla-a...

https://archive.ph/K4ckR

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45062614

[Zigurd]

To be maximally reductive, FSD will never work because the sensor suite is deficient. There are other reasons but that one's enough.

Same for a rocket that's ridiculously large for orbital missions but can't go beyond orbit without 15 to 25 refueling flights of the same enormous rocket.

The reasons for both these failing are going to be manyfold and complex, but there are enough simple reasons that everyone should understand.

[ryandvm]

Wait until they announce that Optimus is only going to have ears because "bats get by just fine"...

[viraptor]

It would be actually fun to see where the limit is on echolocation with serious ML processing these days. Apparently people did quite well in 2022 https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9655721/

[dudefeliciano]

> with a probability that is very low but greater than 0.

And it is insane that this warrants a 1.5 trillion USD valuation - for vaporware.

[throw310822]

The question of whether they will solve FSD is not very relevant if everyone ends up solving it roughly at the same time.

[TitaRusell]

Ha exactly. Do Tesla shareholders think the rest of the auto industry are in a coma?

Besides what does FSD even mean? Austin is not Amsterdam.

[ben_w]

> Do Tesla shareholders think the rest of the auto industry are in a coma?

I have no idea what institutional investors think, and they're probably the relevant group here.

From the way I've observed individuals discussing it, defending it, on HN… it pattern-matches to my understanding of what people these days call "main character syndrome", i.e. that the other companies are just a supporting cast to provide an interesting challenge for the only one that's not an NPC.

[throw310822]

Or, they're stuck in a narrative that stopped making sense only gradually. Tesla solving self-driving ten years ago would have been a triumph. Solving it today, meh. They would be ahead of others by a couple of years, max.

[alsetmusic]

> metanym

I appreciate when my vocabulary expands. I understood this by context and similarity to 'synonym'. I may have encountered it before (probably), but I didn't know it. Excellent use in a post.

Expands my horizons a bit. Hat tip.

[mapontosevenths]

> he's this amazing engineer, who could, possibly, "solve" FSD overnight

Even if thay were true many people hate Elon now. Enough that they will pass on any technology he is the only purveyor of.

After he celebrated letting children starve (USAID) by dancing on stage with a chainsaw many people decided to never buy any Musk product for any reason. Now there are the Epstein ties.

Worse, many people who dont care about politics at all won't get involved, because Musk is an unstable drug user and its not wise to entangle yourself in his business affairs.

[rowanG077]

You really thought the poster meant that Elon Musk personally went and implemented FSD? Just for your information, Musk is also not personally assembling every Tesla vehicle.

[danaris]

Have you seen the way some people talk about Musk around here?

There are clearly plenty of posters who, to all appearances, genuinely believe that he is the entirety of Tesla's R&D department.

[rowanG077]

Well if there are plenty of posters then it should be easy to give me 5 comments of different people where it's clear they believe Tesla R&D is a solo Elon Musk operation.

I'm not holding my breath though.