[jackvalentine]

I just ordered a 37,000AUD BYD, the "$25k (USD) car" that Elon used to promise was coming.

Seems like I'm not the only one with 2779 BYD EVs sold in the country in January compared to just 501 Teslas.[1]

[1] https://business.carsales.com.au/news-room/news/vfacts-janua...

[Betelbuddy]

This is a quote from Tesla latest earnings call, at 04 min..

"Because we're really moving into a future that is based on autonomy and so if you're interested in buying a Model S and X, now would be the time to order it, because we expect to wind down S and X production in next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next quarter. We'll obviously continue to support the Model S and X programs for as long as people have the vehicles, but we're gonna take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont factory and convert that into an Optimus factory, which will... with the long-term goal of having 1 million units a year of Optimus robots in the current S/X space in Fremont."

[bhouston]

This reads to me like someone saying “you can’t dump me, because I am preemptively dumping you.” It is a forced pivot to avoid having to admit failure.

[georgemcbay]

> It is a forced pivot to avoid having to admit failure.

It is also a neat way to reset Elon's Very Reliable Prediction Clock.

I look forward to hearing about how fully functional Optimus robots will be ready to ship "later this year" for the next 10 years.

[CursedSilicon]

I wonder if they'll be similarly "self-driving"

https://old.reddit.com/r/robotics/comments/1ph3scw/tesla_opt...

[6510]

I thought this was the greatest product demo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R40IDdAkRZM

I struggle to imagine what the US version of this intimidating propaganda movie would look like. My mind renders only pictures of square dancing.

[Incipient]

China is absolutely crushing everyone mostly across the board in technology these days. It's comical today, but will just be embarrassing soon.

The only bit visually we see China a little behind is AI but I suspect they have much better closed/unreleased models, and the fab/chip space, but they'll close that gap in a short few years I'd expect.

[throwawayffffas]

The US version is all boston dynamics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNorxwlZlFk&t=9s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeeiN9smjjY

[lern_too_spel]

Unitree is doing everything Boston Dynamics is doing and more without a physical safety barrier between the robots and the humans.

[joering2]

This is amazing! I WISH somebody would take 15 seconds of this clip, add China flag in the bottom, then add scratching sounds of a vinyl disc and forward to this, with Felon Musk/American flag:

https://www.reddit.com/r/robotics/comments/1ph3scw/tesla_opt...

[don_neufeld]

You’ve heard of a bridge to nowhere?

I suspect this is a pivot to nowhere.

[Apofis]

Elon Musk's Meta VR moment is definitely Optimus.

[tjpnz]

Sounds a lot like Mars.

[maxdo]

If he really almost got self driving what is the point to build non autonomous cars ?

Same with robotics .

They got billions in pocket to either release a few new models to save market or invest into RND to change the market .

[bhouston]

Real business people keep running production lines if they are profitable and build additional production lines for new businesses. Real business people do not shut down profitable lines because they are making a pivot, that is what failing startups do.

[palmotea]

> but we're gonna take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont factory and convert that into an Optimus factory, which will... with the long-term goal of having 1 million units a year of Optimus robots in the current S/X space in Fremont."

I don't know how well that's going to work out for them. I saw these robots (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVX6vq0RSnY) on the Chinese New Year Gala, and they look way more dexterous than any Optimus video I've ever seen.

[maxdo]

Chinese dancing king fu Demos are same gimmick as elons robots pouring alcohol in the bar .the real barrier is real ai . Non of the parties gets it

[SloppyDrive]

Optimus is not a leader in humanoids; but that china demo is not really all that impressive; They are lightweight, reduced scale, and not all that dynamic... No idea how adaptable the control would be either.

See how poorly the sword one moves compared to the others.

Optimus hand dexterity is interesting; and the handling capacity is targeting useful weights (10s of kilos).

Boston dynamics is the most interesting; targeting "fit human" manipulation, 50kg. Their adaptable movement and walking are the best ive seen demoed as well.

[seemaze]

Great. First ram goes through the roof, and now china has kung-fu robots. 2026 is going great.

[kuerbel]

They could add EATR (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energetically_Autonomous_Tacti... ) technology to run it and then we have gone almost full horizon zero dawn.

[danaris]

So long as they don't give them the capability to consume arbitrary biomass to fuel themselves, I think we're safe from a Faro Swarm situation for the foreseeable future...

[TitaRusell]

That was some serious vibe coding.

[esafak]

At least start with folding the laundry and helping the infirm. They went straight to martial arts.

[kelipso]

Wonder what the maintenance picture for Tesla will be like from now on. Crazy expensive parts at the very least I would imagine.

[chihuahua]

If you go into a dealership to have your Tesla repaired, they give you a 3D-printed poop emoji to inform you that the parts are not available.

[hirako2000]

Can be turned into value, owning a Tesla is a symbol of status.

[JasonADrury]

A symbol of being aggressively middle class?

[myvoiceismypass]

About half the ubers I take are Teslas. So, for me it largely signals "ride share" these days.

[ndsipa_pomu]

A symbol of being a white nationalist racist?

[hirako2000]

That escalated quickly. No I meant that owning a Tesla, like Apple or Prada is a status symbol. Income status. So if maintainance costs a lot it will reinforce that.

by no mean calling this out is advocating for status signaling , I myself would never buy a Tesla for this very reason.

[NalNezumi]

Can someone enlighten me WHO the customer to those million Optimus robots are?

I've been working in robotics for years now, I've talked with ex Optimus developers, FigureAI devs, some Japanese humanoid devs, researchers, talked to people in conferences and no one. Absolutely no one I've met take Optimus seriously. If a lab is considering buying a humanoid they'll go to China. Hell, even MIT professors that have been crucial to the development (Boston dynamics etc) seems to not put too much emphasis on Tesla.

But I've also been to industrial robotics conferences, mostly for customers and user focus and not developers and usually the perception is different in those circles.

So who are the optimistic customers for Optimus?

[raisedbyninjas]

The same customers as grok. In the future where humanoid robots see some level deployment, there might be some people that need their robot to make CSAM and say the n-word.

[trashface]

Federal US government & to some extent local law enforcement. They most likely won't be able to use them, but they will buy them and put them in a warehouse. Long tradition of US government doing this with tech, going back to SGI workstations in the 90s if not earlier.

[prawn]

I think those are just two of the models that aren't pushed particularly hard. As I understand it, Model 3 and Model Y are the major models in recent time?

I think S, X and Cybertruck are just 3% of 2025 deliveries?

[adgjlsfhk1]

the fact that Tesla's newest model sold pitifully isn't exactly a mitigating factor.

[KennyBlanken]

> 1 million Optimus robots

Are there that many unemployed actors available?

[mattmaroon]

No but thanks to Elon there are a million unemployed federal government workers.

[andsoitis]

> there are a million unemployed federal government workers

Wikipedia notes about 300,000 people were laid off. Not a million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_federal_mas...

[mattmaroon]

Thanks joke police!

[tjpnz]

Plenty of Mocap actors.

[jackvalentine]

I'm not sure what you're trying to tell me.

[gradus_ad]

The whole pivot to Optimus is insane. I can understand the market following Elon down all the other paths he randomly skips down but Optimus... Really?? The only way to explain it is it's not being taken seriously but Elon seems to be taking it very seriously...

[linkjuice4all]

It's especially strange considering the amount of work that Tesla (the company) put into becoming a car manufacturer which is certainly no easy feat. I'm sure some of the know-how, process, and tooling/supply lines could be transitioned to general purpose robot manufacturing - but why would you build these supply lines and factories just to screw it all up like this?

[CTDOCodebases]

Judging by the news isn’t the pivot to creating autonomous driving systems for other manufacturers cars?

If I’m understanding correctly the pivot is to sell just the autonomous driving systems. This way it can be trained on more data. It’s a hard sell to do this while competing against the car makers whose business they are trying to court.

Selling actual cars was like Uber when they started with a black car service. Get into the luxury market then leverage that so get into the mass market.

Perhaps this is why Elon has been so adamant about not using LiDAR

[amluto]

What does any of this have to do with Optimus? Driving a car by sticking a humanoid robot in the driver seat would be amusing but is a terrible idea.

[CTDOCodebases]

I got confused between Optimus and Dojo and assumed that Tesla had a seperate internal AI division called Optimus.

In light of this I think it makes sense though. Tesla lost the government subsidies so it can't compete. Possibly the only way it can would be to have an autonomous workforce then to leverage that into selling picks and shovels (Optimus humanoid robots) to other automotive manufacturers.

[forgetfreeman]

Actually if you run the tape back Tesla spent over a decade on trivially preventable manufacturing fuckups by attempting to ignore a century of industry knowledge on the subject and just wing it silicon valley style. That they have infrastructure that is capable of performing manufacturing at some scale is not in question. That any of it is sufficiently optimized for sanity to be repurposed remains to be seen.

[linkjuice4all]

The Giga Press and battery factories (to some extent) seem pretty heavily tied to automobile manufacture. Regardless - there are many automobile production lines that found a second or third life producing down-market brands or moved to other countries because they still have some value.

I guess I'm just continuously baffled by the complete fuck-up that is/has-been Tesla motors.

[forgetfreeman]

There is a particular breed of bullshit artistry that appeals to popular imagination and investors. Buckminster Fuller comes to mind here.

[Miserlou57]

Even a few short years ago the Model S Plaids were still getting derided for their horrible fit and finish. That's like, a decade into production.

These cars are very long in the tooth so I suspect that the Fremont line has been a shitshow the entire time.

[maxdo]

Ai solved(ing) coding in 2026

Robots doing drunken panda moves FSD are insanely good using MacBook grade + and not even grass iPhone hardware

few other companies are doing large scale self driving large scale pilots

Cars are already heavily built using specialized robots today

Id say it’s equally stupid for any other car brand to invest money into something not autonomous or robotics.

[ihagen]

The world has changed. Cars belong to a consumerism-driven, globalized economy. Humanoid robots and AI belong to a technofeudal, fascist-like state with a government-driven economy. The ruler relies on his elite. The elite relies on AI, humanoid robots, and drones to project the ruler’s power and maintain the status quo. The peasants are no longer needed. They are now seen only as a burden.

[tedd4u]

I think the only thing he can do now is have Tesla "acquire" SpaceX. He already had SpaceX "acquire" the AI thing, so that would roll all three up into a pubco where he can hide things about the business as needed (no fear of SEC problems).

[myvoiceismypass]

I suspect it would be the other way around - SpaceX is gonna IPO in a few months at a similar valuation to Tesla right now, and once the Elon pump can go wild on the public, who knows how quickly SpaceX will go to the moon.

[apparent]

Is this because of his comp package, and the moonshot incentives it creates?

[PearlRiver]

I bet Chinese robots will be cheaper lol.

[dkobia]

The average price of a new car in the US is now ~$50,000 and the average monthly payment is almost $800. All people want is an affordable car and it is clear that won’t happen any time soon. It isn’t strange at all that prisoners to this system are cheering on the Chinese disruption.

[plugger]

You're definitely not alone! I just took delivery of a new BYD Shark 6 on Monday. It's amazing and I paid $41k USD ($57,900 AUD) for it. Before that was available I was planning on punting on a used Hilux.

I'm charging my Shark right now and I couldn't be happier. I expect my fuel bill (it's a PHEV) to drop by 70-80% when compared to the 2010 Commodore wagon I was driving last week.

[Rodeoclash]

Congrats on your upgrade from bogan to neuvo-bogan ;)

(I kid, I also drive a byd, ATTO though rather than shark)

[plugger]

Thank you! I'm in WA, so in some respects if I'm not driving a landie or hilux my bogan creds are still somewhat lacking, but at least I'm looking down on Ranger drivers now lol.

[blub]

The apparently widespread enthusiasm for spyware on wheels (a category in which Tesla also competes) is sobering.

Many customers really only care about price and that it generally works and looks fine and have zero idea about the hidden costs.

[Rover222]

The current model 3 is about $29k with inflation from 2017. They didn't quite hit the mark, but it's not like they're wildly off.

[dboreham]

Saw lots of BYD in New Zealand recently. Probably more than I saw in Hong Kong.

[panick21_]

When Tesla dropped the 'Model 2' car because 'the future would be all robo taxi' I dropped my remaining position in the stock. The idea that car sales would collapse by 50% because robo-taxi would happen just around the corner was crazy.

[vardump]

Did Musk actually ever promise a $25k car?

[mburns]

Repeatedly since at least 2020.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/tesla-said-it-would-sta...

[TOMDM]

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/01/25/25000-tesla-in-the-work...