[modeless]

He has been wrong about timelines and about what specific approaches would ultimately solve ARC-AGI 1 and 2. But he is hardly alone in that. I also won't argue if you call him smug. But he was right about a lot of things, including most importantly that scaling pretraining alone wouldn't break ARC-AGI. ARC-AGI is unique in that characteristic among reasoning benchmarks designed before GPT-3. He deserves a lot of credit for identifying the limitations of scaling pretraining before it even happened, in a precise enough way to construct a quantitative benchmark, even if not all of his other predictions were correct.

[vessenes]

Totally agree. And I hope he continues to be a sort of confident red-teamer like he has been, it's immensely valuable. At some level if he ever drinks the AGI kool-aid we will just be looking for another him to keep making up harder tests.