[cosmic_cheese]

Probabilities have increased, but it's still not a certainty. It may turn out that stumbling across LLMs as a mimicry of human intelligence was a fluke and the confluence of remaining discoveries and advancements required to produce real AGI won't fall into place for many, many years to come, especially if some major event (catastrophic world war, systematic environmental collapse, etc) occurs and brings the engine of technological progress to a crawl for 3-5 decades.

[HDThoreaun]

"100% of AI researchers think we will have AGI this century" isnt the same as "100% of AI researchers think theres a 100% chance that we will have AGI this century"