[fogzen]

They won't survive. AI-as-a-service for frontier models will be relegated to military and research – if that. We're already at diminishing returns on model improvements. Latest improvements are on surrounding architecture, harnesses, agent systems, etc. Consumer hardware will be running the equivalent of ChatGPT 5.2 and IMO most interaction with personal computing devices will be done via natural language LLM personal assistants.

Maybe it takes a bit longer than 5 years but that's where we're going. Already the only reason you're not interacting via personal assistant for everything isn't really LLM capability but the lack of tooling.

[ediblelegible]

Agree 100% with what you’re saying about capabilities, but want to push back on the conclusion that these Trillion dollar companies will let themselves just go away

The are already moving into enterprise, Gov, and product software. I think they’ll find a way to make money even if access to their models is no longer a huge moat