[noupdates]

Pay attention to the outflow of tech investment in the stock market. That money is going to move into OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs. The valuations will be as big you are thinking because the market believes these companies will represent an entire basket of startups.

[marcyb5st]

It Is more likely that people are cashing out very liquid assets (tech stocks) to pay back their loans in Yen as interest rates are rising over there.

Tech stocks with all the hype are second only to crypto in terms of how easy and fast are to sell (hence BTC dropped and now tech stocks IMHO).

Btw, I was too young to fully remember, but wasn't the year before the dot com crash also full of IPOs?

[techblueberry]

Apparently the last two times the Super Bowl Ads were dominated by Tech companies was 2000 for dotCom and 2022 for Crypto.

[deaux]

FWIW, BTC is currently still triple what it was at that time. Crypto as a whole of course isn't. So really this seems like a "time to stick to the big boys".

[pixiemaster]

in dollar yes. if you use the Swiss Franc as baseline, not.

[marcyb5st]

That's a really interesting tidbit. Thanks for sharing.

And thinking about it it makes sense since the decision to pay the outrageous rates for an ad during the Superbowl must be driven by strong emotions (confidence or desperation). In this case, considering there's no clear moat for any of the big players, I believe it's the latter.

[rvz]

> Btw, I was too young to fully remember, but wasn't the year before the dot com crash also full of IPOs?

yes.

[koakuma-chan]

And why would anyone participate in their IPOs? They would be crazily overvalued, like Figma or worse.

[laksjhdlka]

To be fair, Facebook was at the time viewed by many as crazily overvalued.

[gtowey]

Yes, because as a company who's main features were Farmville and posting pics of your food, it was ridiculously overvalued.

But we all underestimated just how ruthless Zuck would be in turning Facebook into a machine for disseminating propaganda and invading our privacy. It has become more akin to Palantir than MySpace because that's where the money is.

[Ekaros]

I really wonder is there even enough dump money from them to sell the stock they hold. Not to mention even raising any new capital... Is there really enough bag holders that will run after these stock with large enough piles of money?

[candiddevmike]

If your thesis was correct, why wouldn't some of those "outflows" go to GOOG or NVDA?

[noupdates]

They would. You can see how resilient GOOG has been during this recent draw-down, and how much growth it has had even as AI sells off.

[bdangubic]

AI sells off… if this is a selloff than I see what everyone is talking about when they are saying we in a bubble :)

[dude250711]

Might as well long NVDA?

[noupdates]

There are many bitter lessons ...

[prewett]

Could you be more specific? Because NVDA has a consistent 20 year growth of something like 400x and +30%/yr, so I don't think the bitter lessons are there.