| I don’t think you’re missing anything. The hype cycle is real. But I also don’t think the signal is zero. It’s just buried under capital and compute flexing. The pattern I see isn’t AI is revolutionary. It’s:
1) The easy wins are done.
2) The marginal gains are getting expensive.
3) The distribution layer is shifting faster than the capability layer. Most new model releases aren’t unlocking fundamentally new workflows. They’re compressing friction in workflows that already work. That’s useful, but not narrative-worthy. The real shift isn’t GPT-5.3 vs GPT-5.2. It’s:
- AI replacing search as the interface layer.
- AI compressing junior-level execution work.
- AI reshaping how products are discovered (AI Overviews, summaries, agents). That doesn’t make MoltBook any less absurd. Burning compute on bots talking to bots is peak theater. But dismissing everything because of the theater might be like dismissing the internet because of Pets.com. We may be at peak hype, but that doesn’t mean the substrate shift isn’t real. The question isn’t, is AI overhyped?
It’s, where is durable value forming? That’s harder, and way less viral, to answer. |