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by insane_dreamer 128 days ago
> incredibly rare

312 shootings in the past 5 years [0]

that's an average of ~ 1 shooting every 4 school days (across ~ 120,000 schools)

that is not incredibly rare; you can try to rationalize it, but if you're a parent and your kid is going to school every day for 12 years, that's about 3000 opportunities for this rare event to happen to them

If I'm computing this correctly, that's approximately 4 * 120,000 = 1 / 480,000 chance of it happening on any given day, or a 1 / 160 chance of it happening to your child in the course of their lifetime; compare that with a 1 / 15300 chance of getting struck by lightening over your lifetime, or a 1 in 800,000,000 chance of dying in a plane crash (this is according to Gemini, I didn't research these numbers thoroughly).

And yet, look how much effort we put into airplane safety.

> existed 25 years ago too

sure, but it's so much worse: [1]

55 shootings in the '70s 80 in the '80s 157 in the '90s 121 in the '00s 260 in the '10s 312 so far in the '20s

the fact that we know this has been a problem for 50 years and instead of doing something about it, the problem is actually getting worse. All so that some grown men can play with their guns (please don't tell me that it's about 2A ability to "resist tyranny"; that hasn't been true for a very long time)

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_school_shootings_in_th...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_school_shootings_in_th...

1 comments

That 300+ figure (60/year) is including things other than mass shootings people typically think of as school shootings (e.g., targeted gang violence).

There are ~74 million children in the US. Even taking your number at face value, it's 0.00000081 shootings per child per year. This is rare.

It's not shootings per child that matters, it's shootings per _school_.

I don't want my child to be traumatized by a school shooting on their school even if they themselves are not killed. That's pretty basic. If multiple people were shot and killed at your workplace, how would you feel about continuing to go there? You think that survivors of a plane crash where other people on the plane died are ready to get back on a plane the next day because "the chances of it happening again are small"?

And I don't care whether it's targeted gang violence or some other type of shooting, it's still an event where someone with a gun is on the school and kills one or more people.