[marifjeren]

> I [...] fit a hyperbolic model to each one independently

^ That's your problem right there.

Assuming a hyperbolic model would definitely result in some exuberant predictions but that's no reason to think it's correct.

The blog post contains no justification for that model (besides well it's a "function that hits infinity"). I can model the growth of my bank account the same way but that doesn't make it so. Unfortunately.

[twoodfin]

Indeed. At various points you could have presumably done an identical analysis with journal articles and climate change, string theory, functional programming… terms & reached structurally the same conclusion.

The coming Singularity: When human institutions will cease being able to coherently react to monads!

[azeirah]

If I understand the author correctly, he chose the hyperbolic model specifically because the story of "the singularity" _requires_ a function that hits infinity.

He's looking for a model that works for the story in the media and runs with it.

Your criticism seems to be criticizing the story, not the author's attempt to take it "seriously"

[marifjeren]

Correct.