[sp527]

The likely outcome is that 99.99% of humanity lives a basic subsistence lifestyle ("UBI") and the elite and privileged few metaphorically (and somewhat literally) ascend to the heavens. Around half the planet already lives on <= $7/day. Prepare to join them.

[tavavex]

I don't understand. In this hypothesis, in the elite's view, what is the purpose of the rest of society? If everyone has little to no productive output, why would they support us with a UBI? They could just hire whatever human skeleton crew they'd need to sustain their activities (if needed). The rest of humanity could be either mercifully left alone with absolutely nothing, or annihilated.

[AndrewKemendo]

Humans are here to create the Training data to bootstrap the system

Luckily we’re already most of the way there!

Over half of the population has been instrumented already to collect all their behavior data worldwide

That’s been the goal: persistent collection of training data should come out of your day-to-day life in order to bootstrap the action systems that are machine based

The challenge now is that most of that data is based on actions we don’t want machines to do

[sp527]

I'm definitely making certain assumptions, such as: (1) democratic rule endures, (2) even absent true democratic rule, the populace can still resort to violent rebellion as a failsafe, (3) psychopathic tendencies amongst said elite are constrained enough such that mass genocide remains sufficiently psychologically unpalatable, (4) economic calamity substantially precedes the deployment of fully autonomous policing, etc.

How this all unfolds is absolutely path dependent.

[tavavex]

I agree. Although, looking at these assumptions, subjectively I think that all four of them are in question, and as time passes, their eventual long-term failure seems increasingly likely. Even if one of these four pillars persists, I would expect an overall worsening by default. If democratic rule persists in places, the most powerful would occupy places where it does not exist, or create fully private states, still wielding enormous power over democratic states through wealth and military might. If violent rebellion is technically possible, a middle ground will be carefully calculated where the lower classes are kept on life support with the minimum amount of resources required to dissuade unrest. If the trillionaires of tomorrow suddenly start caring about other people, they could employ second-order measures to effectively reduce the population, thereby safeguarding themselves - massively constraining or removing the supply of food, water, medicine, any vital technology that would be only available to them. I don't see how an economic crisis would prevent automated enforcement, it may only delay it a bit.

Hope is kind of in short supply nowadays. Even if your hypothesis of absolute-automation doesn't happen within our lifetimes, things seem to be guaranteed to get worse for people like us. If it does happen... we'll likely never reap any real rewards from it, barring a complete restructuring of our whole society to an extent that has never happened and likely would never be allowed to happen.

[sp527]

The cynical pessimist in me agrees with you that the odds are somewhat bleak. The slightly irrational optimist in me says "rage against the dying of the light".

Also, there has never been a better time to learn about philosophies that get at the essence of being human and that elucidate precisely how and why our baser characteristics (acquisitiveness, status-seeking, ego, etc) hold us back from being happy. The world we're heading towards will convert desire into suffering more readily than ever before, even as our basic needs are easily met. Philosophy is the cure. And I strongly believe happiness will remain accessible to those who embrace it.

[AlexCoventry]

FWIW, you'd probably be able to buy a lot of goods and services for $7/day, if robots were doing literally all the work.

[sp527]

Agreed. The quality of life bar will be higher for sure. But it will still technically be a "subsistence" lifestyle, with no prospect of improvement. Perhaps that will suffice for most people? We're going to find out.

[pdonis]

> if robots were doing literally all the work

Let me know when ChatGPT can do your laundry.

[AlexCoventry]

Give it five years.