[duggan]

Not the person you asked, but my interpretation of “left in the dust” here (not a phrasing I particularly agree with) would be the same way iOS development took off in the 2010s.

There was a land rush to create apps. Basic stuff like the flash light, todo lists, etc, were created and found a huge audience. Development studios were established, people became very successful out of it.

I think the same thing will happen here. There is a first mover advantage. The future is not yet evenly distributed.

You can still start as an iOS developer today, but the opportunity is different.

[lapcat]

I’m not sure your analogy is applicable here.

The introduction of the App Store did not increase developer productivity per se. If anything, it decreased developer productivity, because unless you were already already a Mac developer, you had to learn a programming language you've never used, Objective-C, (now it's largely Swift, but that's still mainly used only on Apple platforms) and a brand new Apple-specific API, so a lot of your previous programming expertise became obsolete on a new platform. What the App Store did that was valuable to developers was open up a new market and bring a bunch of new potential customers, iPhone users, indeed relatively wealthy customers willing to spend money on software.

What new market is brought by LLMs? They can produce as much source code as you like, but how exactly do you monetize that massive amount of source code? If anything, the value of source code and software products will drop as more is able to be produced rapidly.

The only new market I see is actually the developer tool market for LLM fans, essentially a circular market of LLM developers marketing to other LLM developers.

As far as the developer job market is concerned, it's painfully clear that companies are in a mass layoff mood. Whether that's due to LLMs, or whether LLMs are just the cover story, the result is the same. Developer compensation is not on the rise, unless you happen to be recruited by one of the LLM vendors themselves.

My impression is that from the developer perspective, LLMs are a scheme to transfer massive amounts of wealth from developers to the LLM vendors. And you can bet the prices for access to LLMs will go up, up, up over time as developers become hooked and demand increases. To me, the whole "OpenClaw" hype looks like a crowd of gamblers at a casino, putting coins in slot machines. One thing is for certain: the house always wins.

[duggan]

My take is more optimistic.

I think it will make prototyping and MVP more accessible to a wider range of people than before. This goes all the way from people who don't know how to code up to people who know very well how to code, but don't have the free time/energy to pursue every idea.

Project activation energy decreases. I think this is a net positive, as it allows more and different things to be started. I'm sure some think it's a net negative for the same reasons. If you're a developer selling the same knowledge and capacity you sold ten years ago things will change. But that was always the case.

My comparison to iOS was about the market opportunity, and the opportunity for entrepreneurship. It's not magic, not yet anyway. This is the time to go start a company, or build every weird idea that you were never going to get around to.

There are so many opportunities to create software and companies, we're not running out of those just because it's faster to generate some of the code.

[lapcat]

What you just said seems reasonable. However, what the earlier commenter said, which led to this subthread, seems unreasonable: those people unwilling to try the tools "are absolutely going to get left in the dust."

Returning to the iOS analogy, though, there was only a short period of time in history when a random developer with a flashlight or fart app could become successful in the App Store. Nowadays, such a new app would flop, if Apple even allowed it, as you admitted: "You can still start as an iOS developer today, but the opportunity is different." The software market in general is not new. There are already a huge number of competitors. Thus, when you say, "This is the time to go start a company, or build every weird idea that you were never going to get around to," it's unclear why this would be the case. Perhaps the barrier to entry for competitors has been lowered, yet the competition is as fierce as ever (unlike in the early App Store).

In any case, there's a huge difference between "the barrier to entry has been lowered" and "those who don't use LLMs will be left in the dust". I think the latter is ridiculous.

Where are the original flashlight and fart app developers now? Hopefully they made enough money to last a lifetime, otherwise they're back in the same boat as everyone else.

[duggan]

> In any case, there's a huge difference between "the barrier to entry has been lowered" and "those who don't use LLMs will be left in the dust". I think the latter is ridiculous.

Yeah, it’s a bit incendiary, I just wanted to turn it into a more useful conversation.

I also think it overstates the case, but I do think it’s an opportunity.

It’s not just that the barrier to entry has been lowered (which it has) but that someone with a lot of existing skill can leverage that. Not everyone can bring that to the table, and not everyone who can is doing so. That’s the current advantage (in my opinion, of course).

All that said, I thought the Vision Pro was going to usher in a new era of computing, so I’m not much of a prognosticator.

[lapcat]

> it’s a bit incendiary

> I also think it overstates the case

I think it's a mistake to defend and/or "reinterpret" the hype, which is not helping to promote the technology to people who aren't bandwagoners. If anything, it drives them away. It's a red flag.

I wish you would just say to the previous commenter, hey, you appear to be exaggerating, and that's not a good idea.

[sowbug]

I didn't read the comment as such a direct analogy. It was more recalling a lesson of history that maybe doesn't repeat but probably will rhyme.

The App Store reshuffled the deck. Some people recognized that and took advantage of the decalcification. Some of them did well.

You've recognized some implications of the reshuffle that's currently underway. Maybe you're right that there's a bias toward the LLM vendors. But among all of it, is there a niche you can exploit?