[Animats]

High value metal price volatility is huge. Here's copper.[1] Demand is relatively inelastic because, while substitution is possible, it takes years to switch. Supply is relatively inelastic because mines are big, capital-intensive operations. So small supply-demand imbalances produce large price swings.

We keep hearing about rare earth shortages, but the mining industry is now worried about a coming rare earth glut.[2] Everybody who can is adding rare earth capacity. Last glut was in 2015. A side effect of Trump's tariffs is a copper glut.[3] Tungsten is in a shortage mode but production is increasing.[4] Tungsten demand for incandescent lamps is down, but other uses are up.

This oscillation has real effects. Mines shut down and companies go bankrupt.

China operates on a five year plan and can, to some extent, force price stability by having the government control production. This has political risk; it can lead to huge stockpiles of useless material to maintain employment. The US has a National Cheese Reserve due to badly designed milk price supports. Canada has a potato glut. It's worse for food products. Metals don't spoil.

[1] https://www.macrotrends.net/1476/copper-prices-historical-ch...

[2] https://rareearthexchanges.com/news/beyond-beijing-the-uneas...

[3] https://logistics.maritimeprofessional.com/transport-infrast...

[4] https://www.coreconsultantsgroup.com/tungsten-market-outlook...