[rsynnott]

You said:

> Models have gotten much better than even the most optimistic predictions.

We were promised Roko's Basilisk by now, damnit! Where's my magical robot god?!

But seriously, predictions a couple years back for 2026/27 (by quite big players, like Altman) were for AGI or as good as.

I do not, for the record, claim that they are totally useless. They are useful where correctness of results does not matter, for instance low-stakes natural language translation and spam generation. There's _some_ argument that they are somewhat useful in cases where their output can be reviewed by an expert (code generation etc), though honestly quantitive evidence there is mixed at best; for all the "10x developer" claims, there's not much in the way of what you'd call hard evidence.