[api]

Climate change is a great example of a horrid game theory problem. Solving it requires an all cooperate pact as long as fossil fuels remain one of the easiest cheapest ways to get power. As long as that’s true, any defector can outcompete everyone in industrial production and creating a higher standard of living.

The other way to beat this is to advance renewable or nuclear power or both to the point that these options are cheaper than fossil fuels, which changes the game by making defection much less profitable.

I personally think that's the only way that's likely to work. As long as fossil fuels are the cheapest easiest route to prosperity, even if the rich world makes (and actually keeps) a climate change pact there's going to be an enormous temptation for developing countries to be like "fuck you, we're poor." Poverty, as in real grinding poverty, really really sucks.

[mungoman2]

But renewable is already cheaper than fossil fuels. Why don't we see this already?

[coryrc]

Renewable PV is the cheapest way generate electricity during daytime at appropriate latitudes.

Notice several caveats: electricity, not heat; daytime, not nighttime; only for some places on the globe.

Most energy use doesn't use electricity. It's one thing to replace an average-16%-efficient internal combustion engine with electricity and another to replace a 96%-efficient condensing boiler.

[gamblor956]

Solar heating has been a thing for centuries.

[coryrc]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_Landing_Solar_Community

We could take all suburban United States off of fossil fuel heating with solar heating. But that would require planning up front and cost some powerful people money, so we can't.

[api]

The problem is industry and dense urban centers. Light residential is not the thing that’s challenging to power.

[api]

By heat I think the parent mostly means industrial process heat, which is mostly supplied by natural gas now. Coal is still used in metallurgy.

Electric heat is rare since it’s inefficient (thermodynamics) and thus expensive but it’s used in applications where you need precision temperature control.

Of course if solar and batteries got cheap enough you could just say F it and use electric resistance heat everywhere. Time your peak production to coincide with mid day when solar is at peak.